Robinhood Q3 earnings delivered a split verdict on Wednesday morning: a record top line and booming options and prediction-market trading on one side, and a profit miss driven by a collapsing crypto business on the other. Robinhood Markets reported third-quarter 2026 results after the market closed on Tuesday, October 27, and investors wasted no time in rendering their judgment, sending the shares down about 8% in after-hours and premarket trading on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.
The headline numbers explain the reaction. Total net revenue rose 12% from a year earlier to a record $1.42 billion, yet that still fell short of Wall Street expectations of about $1.43 billion to $1.44 billion. Reported earnings per share fell 16% to 51 cents, missing the 55-cent consensus compiled by LSEG, while net income dropped 14% to $476 million. Adjusted earnings of 60 cents did beat the Zacks consensus of 56 cents, but the adjusted figure excluded certain non-operating items, including $67 million of unrealised losses, mainly tied to mark-to-market changes in Robinhood Ventures Fund I, which reduced earnings per share by 7 cents.
Robinhood released its third-quarter results, covering the three months to September 30, after Tuesday's closing bell. The initial market response was swift and negative. Shares that had closed at $94.56 on Tuesday dropped almost 8% in after-hours trading, according to Zacks, and were down 8.2% in premarket trading at 4:35 a.m. ET on Wednesday, at $86.84, according to TokenPost. Other reports put the after-hours fall at roughly 5% to 7%, to about $88 to $89, a range that reflects how quickly prices moved in thin overnight trading rather than any disagreement about the direction: down, and sharply.
The miss was narrow on revenue but clear on profit. Zacks put the revenue consensus at $1.44 billion against the reported $1.42 billion; other summaries put the Street forecast at $1.43 billion. Either way, a record quarter was not quite enough. Net income of $476 million was down 14% year over year, and the reported 51-cent profit compared with a 55-cent consensus. Adjusted earnings of 60 cents, down 3% from a year earlier, beat the Zacks consensus of 56 cents, but that measure strips out items including the $67 million of unrealised losses, so the market focused on the unadjusted miss.
Robinhood's own framing stressed strength elsewhere. Transaction-based revenue rose 19% to a record $867 million, and management pointed to record trading volumes across equities, options and event contracts. The company also lowered the upper end of its 2026 adjusted operating expenses and share-based compensation outlook by $25 million, to a range of $2.68 billion to $2.75 billion, from $2.68 billion to $2.78 billion previously, implying fourth-quarter costs of $765 million to $840 million.
Robinhood built its name as a commission-free brokerage for retail traders, and for years its fortunes rose and fell with market-sensitive transaction revenue and retail sentiment. Reuters noted that the company has since broadened rapidly into a fuller financial-services firm, adding retirement accounts, a Gold subscription, banking-style products and new trading venues. That diversification is now visible in the numbers: even as crypto faded, options, equities and event contracts carried transaction revenue to a record.
The crypto chill behind the miss was not specific to Robinhood. Reuters reported that crypto markets have been under pressure this year because of shifting expectations for US interest rates, outflows from bitcoin exchange-traded funds and bouts of risk aversion, while rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions have added to market jitters. Bitcoin, the world's largest digital asset, has fallen nearly 28% over the past three months, according to Reuters. When prices fall and volatility prompts retail traders to pull back from speculative bets, the brokerage earns less on each crypto trade, and in this quarter it earned far less in total.
The timing also matters. The Federal Reserve was due to announce its October interest-rate decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, with markets expecting a hold after last month's first hike in three years. Rate expectations have been a recurring driver of crypto sentiment all year, so traders were already braced for a cautious session before Robinhood's numbers landed. The shares were also down roughly 22% so far in 2026 before Wednesday's fall, according to CoinCentral, a reminder that this quarter's slide extended an already difficult year for the stock.
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Start with trading, where the quarter was genuinely strong outside crypto. Options revenue surged 31% to $399 million, equities revenue jumped 41% to $121 million, and event-contract revenue increased more than sixfold to $173 million. Other transaction-based revenue rose 20% to $54 million. Equity notional trading volume advanced 53% to a record $992 billion, options contracts traded increased 48% to a record 905 million, and event contracts traded surged more than sevenfold to a record 16.4 billion. Rothera Exchange, the company's newer venue, surpassed $100 million in annualised revenue in its first full quarter of operations.
Prediction markets deserve special attention, because they are now a material business rather than an experiment. Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma said the business had reached nearly $500 million in annualised revenue less than two years after launch, according to TokenPost, with sports and non-sports event contracts both growing and non-sports contracts making up a larger share of volume. Event-contract revenue of $173 million, up from a small base a year earlier, is the clearest sign of that shift.
Crypto told the opposite story. Crypto transaction revenue fell 55% to $120 million. Crypto notional trading volume declined 38% to approximately $50 billion, with volume on the Robinhood app down 48% to $21 billion and Bitstamp volume down 28% to $29 billion. Net interest revenue also fell, down 9% to $415 million, as lower securities-lending activity and lower short-term interest rates more than offset growth in interest-earning assets. Other revenue climbed 61% to $142 million, helped by $47 million of service revenue related to Trump Accounts and higher Robinhood Gold subscription revenue, while average revenue per user rose 5% to $200.
Customers and assets kept growing. Funded customers increased 7% to a record 28.7 million, investment accounts rose 9% to 30.4 million, and total platform assets advanced 19% to a record $396 billion, reflecting continued net deposits and higher equity valuations, partly offset by lower crypto valuations. Average platform assets per funded customer reached $13,800. Net deposits totalled $15.7 billion, a 17% annualised growth rate, and reached $71 billion over the past 12 months, up 21%. Robinhood Retirement assets under custody surged 51% to a record $36.6 billion, and Gold subscribers increased 34% to 5.18 million, an 18% adoption rate, with annualised Gold subscription revenue of $248 million.
Costs rose with the expansion. Total operating expenses increased 16% to $739 million, driven mainly by a larger provision for credit losses, spending on Trump Accounts and Rothera, and marketing and growth investment. The provision for credit losses surged 173% to $71 million, technology and development expenses rose 7% to $254 million, and operations expenses climbed 139% to $79 million, while general and administrative expenses fell 12% to $163 million. Adjusted operating expenses and share-based compensation rose 8% to $664 million. Adjusted EBITDA still increased 9% to $808 million, though its margin slipped to 57% from 58% a year earlier. On the balance sheet, cash and equivalents ended September at $5.8 billion, up from $4.3 billion a year earlier, operating cash flow was $1.23 billion in the quarter, and the company repurchased $25 million of stock, about 0.2 million shares at an average price of $105.
Analyst reaction split between the weak headline and the stronger underlying trading trends. J.P. Morgan analyst Kenneth Worthington wrote: "We see Robinhood's legacy brokerage business continuing to perform well in what we see as a near-perfect environment for retail traders," according to Reuters, which also noted that Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth prospects despite the quarter's volatility.
Zacks struck a similar balance, concluding that solid transaction revenue, product expansion and higher interest-earning assets, along with a solid balance sheet, will likely support Robinhood's financials, while rising expenses, crypto weakness and regulatory risks remain major headwinds. Zacks currently rates the stock a Rank #1, or Strong Buy. For comparison, Zacks noted that Charles Schwab's third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share beat its consensus of $1.66, while Interactive Brokers earned 67 cents, matching expectations, a reminder that Robinhood's miss stood out among large brokers this earnings season.
Management's own guidance move pointed the same way: trimming the top end of the full-year expense outlook while keeping investment in Trump Accounts, Rothera and marketing. The customer numbers support a story of a growing platform even if the profit line did not. The market, however, priced the quarter on the crypto miss and the higher credit-loss provision, not on the record assets.
This quarter matters because it tests whether Robinhood has truly diversified away from crypto. The answer is mixed, and that is precisely why the shares fell. On the one hand, record transaction revenue of $867 million, record platform assets of $396 billion and a fast-growing prediction-market business show a company that is no longer a single-product bet. On the other hand, a 55% collapse in crypto revenue was still enough to drag reported profit below forecasts, showing how much leverage that one line retains over the bottom line when sentiment turns.
It also matters for retail investors more broadly. Robinhood's 28.7 million funded customers and $15.7 billion of quarterly net deposits make it a bellwether for how ordinary savers and traders are behaving. The fact that deposits and Gold subscriptions kept rising while crypto trading cooled suggests customers are staying, but trading less speculatively. That is healthier for the business long term, yet it produces lumpier quarterly profits, which is exactly the pattern investors punished on Wednesday.
Finally, the quarter sets up a high-stakes fourth quarter. Robinhood lowered the top end of its full-year expense outlook, signalling discipline, but it must now show that options, event contracts and subscriptions can keep growing fast enough to offset another soft crypto quarter if the chill persists. With the Federal Reserve decision, Alphabet and Microsoft earnings, and the final days before the November 3 midterms all landing in the same week, the stock is unlikely to get a quiet session to recover.
Three things will decide whether Wednesday's fall sticks. First, the regular trading session: premarket losses of about 8% can narrow or widen quickly once US markets open, and the close will tell investors whether institutions used the dip to buy or joined the selling. Second, crypto prices themselves: a stabilisation in bitcoin after its near-28% three-month fall would ease the single biggest drag on Robinhood's revenue, while another leg down would keep pressure on the shares. Third, the company's fourth-quarter update, when investors will check whether the trimmed $2.68 billion to $2.75 billion expense range held and whether event contracts and Gold subscriptions kept their momentum into the holiday season.
Longer term, watch Rothera Exchange and the prediction-market business. Rothera passed $100 million in annualised revenue in its first full quarter, and prediction markets are approaching $500 million in annualised revenue. If those lines keep compounding, they could eventually dwarf the crypto revenue that dominated this quarter's headlines. If they stall, Robinhood will remain hostage to the crypto cycle it has spent years trying to outgrow.
Did Robinhood beat earnings expectations in Q3 2026? On an adjusted basis, yes: adjusted EPS of 60 cents beat the Zacks consensus of 56 cents. On a reported basis, no: EPS of 51 cents missed the 55-cent LSEG consensus, and net income fell 14% to $476 million.
Why did Robinhood shares fall after earnings? Revenue of $1.42 billion missed forecasts of about $1.43 billion to $1.44 billion, crypto revenue plunged 55%, and operating expenses rose 16%, including a 173% jump in the credit-loss provision.
How much did crypto revenue fall? Crypto transaction revenue fell 55% year over year to $120 million, as crypto notional trading volume dropped 38% to about $50 billion.
What grew in the quarter? Options revenue rose 31% to $399 million, equities revenue rose 41% to $121 million, event-contract revenue grew more than sixfold to $173 million, funded customers hit a record 28.7 million, and platform assets hit a record $396 billion.
What is Robinhood's outlook for the rest of 2026? The company trimmed the top end of its 2026 adjusted operating expenses and share-based compensation outlook by $25 million, to $2.68 billion to $2.75 billion, implying fourth-quarter costs of $765 million to $840 million.
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