Typhoon In-fa is bearing down on the Northern Mariana Islands as a powerful Category 3 storm, and forecasters say its closest pass to the United States territory will come on Friday, when it is expected to sweep north of Saipan and close to the remote northern island of Pagan. The storm was packing sustained winds of 125 mph on Tuesday afternoon, and while no typhoon or tropical storm watches were in effect for the region, the National Weather Service warned residents across the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) to follow the storm closely and be ready to act.
The latest track keeps the centre of Typhoon In-fa north of the most populated islands, but forecasters stressed that the track remains highly uncertain four days out. A shift south would put Saipan and Tinian in far greater danger, while a shift north would take the storm farther away. For now, the greatest immediate threat is at sea: forecasters expect seas to become hazardous by late Thursday, with larger surf possible for Tinian and Saipan if the storm tracks farther south.
On Tuesday afternoon, October 27, Typhoon In-fa was located at 14.3 degrees north latitude and 162.2 degrees east longitude, more than 1,100 miles east of Guam, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as reported by Isla Public Media. It was a Category 3 storm with winds of 125 mph and was moving west-northwest at just 2 mph. Typhoon-force winds extended 35 miles from the centre, with tropical-storm-force winds reaching 90 miles out.
A separate advisory summarised on Tuesday put the storm at 14.5 degrees north, 161.6 degrees east, with maximum winds of 120 mph and gusts to 150 mph, moving west at 6 mph, illustrating how slowly the storm was crawling across the western Pacific and how small differences in advisory timing can shift the reported position and speed. Forecasters expected In-fa to make a slight turn toward the west and increase in forward speed through Wednesday, then turn back to the west-northwest, and to begin intensifying on Wednesday night.
The National Weather Service office in Guam, which issues forecasts for the region under the name NWS Tiyan, said in its October 27 discussion that In-fa would move west, then west-northwest toward the far northern CNMI, with its closest approach forecast for Friday. The possible passage area stretched from just north of Saipan toward Maug, a remote northern island. The discussion warned that marine effects can arrive before the centre itself, and that seas were expected to become hazardous by late Thursday.
In-fa began as a tropical storm over the northern Marshall Islands. A special weather statement issued on October 24 said it had been upgraded to Tropical Storm In-fa at 7 a.m. ChST that morning, near 10.6 degrees north, 166.3 degrees east, about 120 miles north-northeast of Ujae Atoll, south of Bikini and Rongelap Atolls. At that stage it had maximum sustained winds of only 40 mph, but strong sustained west to southwest winds with damaging tropical-storm-force gusts were already expected for the northern and central Marshall Islands, and significant boat damage had been reported along west reefs.
The storm then meandered generally northward for several days before turning toward the Marianas. By Monday morning, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had issued its first typhoon warning for In-fa at 1 a.m., with winds of 85 mph. At 7 a.m. Monday, the National Weather Service put sustained winds at 90 mph, with the storm about 1,270 miles east of Guam and moving northwest at 9 mph. It was expected to become a Category 2 typhoon early Monday afternoon, with winds topping 100 mph, and to reach Category 3, a major typhoon, by early Tuesday.
That intensification happened on schedule. By Tuesday, In-fa was a Category 3 storm, and forecast outlooks showed it strengthening further toward Category 4 by Friday. One Joint Typhoon Warning Center outlook put the storm near 17.4 degrees north, 146.3 degrees east at 6 a.m. UTC on October 30, with sustained winds of 135 knots, equivalent to about 155 mph, while another summary put the Friday peak near 140 mph. The difference reflects different advisory times and forecast rounds, not a contradiction about the direction of travel: every outlook agreed the storm was heading for the northern Marianas and strengthening as it went.
The Northern Mariana Islands are a United States commonwealth in the western Pacific. Saipan is the largest and most populated island, Tinian lies to its south, and Pagan is a much more remote island to the north. Guam, a separate United States territory, lies about 300 miles south of the forecast Friday track, which is why forecasters have consistently said Guam is expected to stay mostly out of the way.
The central question for the next three days is not whether In-fa will strengthen, but exactly how far north or south its centre will pass. As of the 7 a.m. public advisory on Monday, Saipan still sat within the southern edge of the cone of uncertainty, the forecast area in which the centre could plausibly travel. A path more due west would be a bigger problem for Saipan and Tinian, forecasters said, while a northward shift would take the storm farther from both Pagan and Saipan.
Tuesday's track kept the storm about 180 miles north of Saipan and about 300 miles north of Guam on Friday. That distance matters: typhoon-force winds extended only 35 miles from the centre on Tuesday, and tropical-storm-force winds 90 miles, so a centre passing 180 miles north of Saipan would keep the strongest winds well offshore, even as swell, surf and outer rain bands reached the islands. But a southward wobble of even a few dozen miles would narrow that margin quickly, and forecasters cautioned that at four to five days from passage, shifts in track and timing, sooner or later, should be anticipated.
The marine threat is the most certain part of the forecast. The National Weather Service discussion for October 27 said seas would become hazardous by late Thursday, and that a farther-south track could bring larger seas to Tinian and Saipan. It also warned that a centre passing north of an island does not mean the water stays calm, because swell travels away from the storm and track changes alter exposure. Residents were advised to compare successive official track forecasts with marine forecasts for each island, including swell direction and expected seas, and to use remote observations rather than approaching exposed reefs.
Landon Aydlett, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Guam, told The Guam Daily Post on Monday morning that Guam was not the main concern. "Not a big concern for Guam, but this is really a concern for the CNMI," Aydlett said. He added that In-fa could come just shy of super typhoon strength as it neared the Marianas, a threshold forecasters generally place at 150 mph.
Aydlett also spelled out the stakes of a track shift. A path more due west, he said, would be "a bigger problem for Saipan and Tinian," while the forecast cone on Monday covered much of the commonwealth, from Saipan on its southern edge to north of Pagan. The National Weather Service said residents on all CNMI islands should follow In-fa closely and be ready to act, even though no tropical storm or typhoon watches or warnings were in effect as of the latest advisory cited.
Local coverage on Tuesday echoed that message. Isla Public Media reported that In-fa remained on track to pass north of Saipan on Friday, while the National Weather Service said the storm was expected to begin intensifying on Wednesday night. No evacuation orders or emergency declarations for the CNMI were reported in the coverage reviewed, a reflection of both the distance still to run and the uncertainty in the track.
For the Northern Mariana Islands, a Category 3 or Category 4 typhoon passing even 180 miles offshore is not a distant weather story. The islands are low-lying, exposed to Pacific swell from every direction, and dependent on shipping and air links that can be disrupted for days by rough seas and high winds. A southward shift would bring stronger winds, heavier rain and more dangerous surf to Saipan and Tinian, the islands where most residents live and where the territory's main airport, port and government services are concentrated.
The timing adds to the concern. In-fa arrives at the end of October, as the western Pacific typhoon season winds down but before the region can assume the risk has passed. The same week has already brought tropical trouble elsewhere in the Pacific: Tropical Storm Vance weakened to 45 mph off Mexico on Tuesday, and Tropical Depression Olana in the central Pacific became a post-tropical remnant low after its final advisory on Monday evening. In-fa is now the strongest system on the global map, and the only one with a forecast track toward United States territory.
There is also a wider context for the CNMI this week. The United States Department of Homeland Security has suspended visa-free entry for Chinese nationals to the Northern Mariana Islands from October 30, citing security concerns, a decision covered separately on this site. That suspension is unrelated to the storm, but it means the territory is already in the national news as In-fa approaches, and any disruption to travel or government services in the coming days will be watched closely.
Forecasters expect In-fa to turn west and speed up through Wednesday, then turn back west-northwest and intensify from Wednesday night. Its closest approach to the Northern Mariana Islands is forecast for Friday, when it is expected to pass north of Saipan and near Pagan. Residents should expect updated advisories from the National Weather Service and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at least every six hours, with the track, wind radii and marine forecasts refined as the storm gets closer.
The next decision point comes on Thursday, when seas are expected to become hazardous. If the track holds north, Saipan and Tinian may escape with rough surf, gusty winds and passing showers. If the track shifts south, forecasters could issue tropical storm or typhoon watches for the populated islands, and residents would need to secure boats, clear loose outdoor items and prepare for possible power and water disruptions. Until then, the official advice remains unchanged: follow In-fa closely, compare each new forecast with the last, and be ready to act quickly if the track moves.
After Friday, In-fa is forecast to continue northwestward, with one outlook taking it to about 20.6 degrees north, 141.6 degrees east by October 31, still at major typhoon strength. That would carry it away from the Marianas and toward the Ogasawara Islands, but forecasters caution that long-range tracks beyond Friday carry even greater uncertainty.
On Tuesday afternoon, October 27, 2026, In-fa was at about 14.3 degrees north, 162.2 degrees east, more than 1,100 miles east of Guam, moving west-northwest at 2 mph as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds.
Its closest approach is forecast for Friday, October 30, when it is expected to pass about 180 miles north of Saipan and near Pagan, though the exact timing could shift sooner or later.
Not on the current track, which keeps the centre 180 miles north of Saipan. But Saipan sits on the southern edge of the cone of uncertainty, and a southward shift would bring stronger winds and seas to Saipan and Tinian.
No tropical storm or typhoon watches or warnings were in effect for the region in the latest advisories reviewed. That can change quickly if the track shifts, so residents should check each new advisory.
Follow official forecasts from the National Weather Service Guam and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, secure boats and loose outdoor items, avoid exposed reefs and hazardous surf from Thursday onward, and be ready to act if watches are issued.
Related coverage: Hawaii flood watch as Olana remnants bring heavy rain, Santa Fe tornado, the first in the city in 50 years, and US suspends visa-free travel for Chinese nationals to the Northern Mariana Islands.
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