The Maine Senate race is deadlocked one week before Election Day, with Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson tied at 49 percent each in the latest Fox News poll and the polling averages giving Jackson only a narrow edge. With control of the United States Senate potentially hanging on a handful of seats, Maine has become one of the most watched contests in the country, a race that pits a senator first elected in 1996 against a challenger arguing that after nearly 30 years it is time for a change. Collins is the only Republican senator seeking re-election in a state Donald Trump lost in 2024, and that fact shapes almost every argument in the final week.
What makes Maine so hard to read is that the polls and the betting markets are telling slightly different stories. The surveys say a coin flip. The markets lean, modestly, toward Jackson. And Maine voters themselves, when asked who they think will actually win, still pick Collins. That gap between preference and expectation is the story of this race: a popular incumbent fighting a national mood, in a state that has voted Democratic for president since 1988 but has returned Collins to Washington five times.
The Fox News poll, released on October 22, is the freshest statewide snapshot and the one both campaigns are quoting. It surveyed 1,514 likely voters between October 16 and 20, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, and found the race statistically tied at 49 percent for Collins and 49 percent for Jackson. USA TODAY reported on October 27 that Collins may have picked up support from targeted tariff relief for Maine farmers, a reminder that even small, local interventions can move a race this close.
The broader polling picture is only slightly less tight. Aggregators updated on October 25 put Jackson at 48.8 percent and Collins at 47.2 percent in the 270toWin average, 48.9 to 47.8 percent at Decision Desk HQ, 48.9 to 47.5 percent at RealClearPolitics, and 49.3 to 47.0 percent in the Silver Bulletin average. Taken together, the average is Jackson 49.0 percent, Collins 47.4 percent, with 3.6 percent undecided or backing someone else: a Jackson lead of 1.6 points, well within the margin of error of most individual polls.
The betting markets are a little bolder. Covers, updating its Maine midterm odds on October 26, put Jackson at 59 percent, down from 65 percent the previous week, on more than 5.5 million dollars traded. A Kalshi-based tracker put Jackson at about 60 percent and Collins at 41 percent. VotingMonitor's composite, blending polls, markets and artificial intelligence responses, gave Jackson 51 percent to Collins's 44 percent, while noting that its panel of chatbots was split exactly 44-44 between the two candidates. None of these figures is a forecast of the vote share; a 60 percent market price means traders think Jackson wins roughly three times in five, not that he will take 60 percent of the vote.
Collins has held the seat since 1997 and is seeking a sixth term. She is one of the Senate's best-known moderates, a Republican who has repeatedly broken with her party and who has survived in a blue state by building a personal brand separate from the national party. Maine has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, and Trump lost the state again in 2024. That history is why Collins's re-election bids are always treated as tests of whether a personal reputation can beat a partisan tide.
She has beaten that tide before. In 2020, polls showed Collins trailing Democrat Sara Gideon for much of the race, yet she won by nearly nine points. That comeback is the reason many analysts urge caution about the current numbers: Collins has a record of outperforming her polls, of winning late-deciding voters, and of holding together a coalition of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats that does not show up cleanly in a single survey.
Jackson, a Democrat, is running as a working-class challenger focused on the cost of living. His campaign has pressed Collins on affordability at almost every turn, arguing that three decades in Washington have left her out of touch with what Maine families pay for groceries, housing, heating and health care. Collins has answered with her record of delivering for Maine, including, in the October debate, getting the state exempted from a road salt levy. Jackson's reply, "We can't eat road salt," became a viral meme and, for his supporters, a shorthand for the whole campaign: practical help matters more than process wins.
The race is also expensive. About 126 million dollars in Republican outside spending has been reported in the contest, according to market trackers, and the total spent on both sides makes Maine one of the most heavily fought Senate battlegrounds of 2026. RealClearPolitics rates 10 Senate races as toss-ups, and USA TODAY's October 27 analysis argued that Republican control of the chamber may come down to Collins in Maine and Ashley Hinson in Iowa, the two Republican women in the tightest contests.
The Marist poll, conducted October 1-4 among 1,505 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.8 points, offers the fullest picture of the electorate behind the headline numbers. Jackson led Collins 51 percent to 47 percent among registered voters, and led among independents 52 percent to 45 percent. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats led Republicans 54 percent to 45 percent statewide, and by 14 points among independents. In the governor's race on the same ballot, Democrat Hannah Pingree led Republican Bobby Charles 52 percent to 40 percent.
Yet the same Marist survey found that 57 percent of Maine voters think Collins will actually win, against 41 percent who think Jackson will. That expectation gap matters: voters who expect an incumbent to win are sometimes more willing to stick with her, and Collins's campaign has long argued that her support is softer in polls than it is in the voting booth. The survey also found that 44 percent of voters say their congressional vote is mainly a vote against Trump, 16 percent say it is mainly a vote for him, and 39 percent say he is not much of a factor. Trump's job approval in Maine stood at 40 percent approving and 59 percent disapproving.
Women may decide the race, as they have before. In 2020, women made up nearly 60 percent of the Maine electorate, according to NPR figures cited by USA TODAY. They voted for Joe Biden for president by 23 points, but backed Collins by three points. This time, Jackson leads among women, though narrowly: 51 percent to 47 percent in a September 17-21 University of New Hampshire survey. The Fox News poll found a warning for each candidate: 53 percent of likely voters said they are concerned Collins votes with Trump too much, while 46 percent worry Jackson is too liberal. Trump's net approval rating in Maine is minus 32, according to a rolling tracker from the pollster Civiqs cited by USA TODAY.
Abortion runs through the race as well. Collins supports abortion rights, but her 2018 vote was crucial to confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Four years later, Kavanaugh joined the majority that overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the constitutional right to abortion and leaving the issue to the states. Collins has defended her record as a supporter of reproductive rights; Jackson and his allies argue the Kavanaugh vote tells a different story. But as USA TODAY noted, Maine voters, women included, seem more worried about affordability than abortion in the final week, and it is on prices, not court history, that Jackson has landed his sharpest blows.
USA TODAY columnist Nicole Russell, writing on October 27, framed the contest as a test of Trump, not of gender. "For Collins and Hinson, being a woman hasn't helped or hurt much," she wrote. "In this climate, economic worries and loyalty to Trump seem to trump everything, including gender. So no, the GOP doesn't have a woman problem. If it loses the Senate Nov. 3, it will be because two Republican women couldn't escape the man who leads their party."
On affordability, the debate exchange has done the talking. Collins touted getting Maine exempted from a road salt levy. Jackson pressed her on the cost of living, then quipped, "We can't eat road salt." The line spread quickly online and has been adopted by Jackson supporters as a summary of his case: that Washington process achievements do not fill a shopping basket.
The broader polling debate has also produced a caution from analysts: a polling average, a vote share and a probability are not the same thing. VoteHub's model gave Jackson a 63.4 percent chance of winning even while its polling average showed him ahead by only 1.9 points, a reminder that a small polling lead can still translate into a clear favourite in a probabilistic model, and that a favourite can still lose. Collins's 2020 victory, after trailing in the polls, is cited by both sides: by her supporters as proof she closes well, and by Jackson's as proof that no lead is safe.
Maine matters because the Senate map is so tight. If Republicans lose Collins's seat, their path to holding the chamber narrows sharply, and every other toss-up becomes harder to afford. If Collins holds on, it will be seen as further proof that a strong incumbent brand can survive even a hostile national environment, and it will blunt Democratic hopes of a Senate majority. Either way, the result will be read nationally as a verdict on whether voters are punishing Trump, rewarding incumbency, or simply voting their wallets.
It matters for Maine itself for a simpler reason: the winner will help decide the next two years of federal policy on health care, energy, tariffs and the cost of living, issues that hit a rural, heating-dependent state harder than most. Maine's farmers, fishermen and small manufacturers have felt tariff policy directly, which is why targeted tariff relief became a campaign talking point at all. The next senator will also vote on judicial nominations, on any future Supreme Court vacancy, and on the shape of the federal budget after a bruising shutdown fight.
Finally, Maine matters as a bellwether for how voters weigh experience against change. Collins is asking voters to trust a record built over 30 years. Jackson is asking them to decide that 30 years is itself the problem. That argument, experience versus change, is playing out in Senate races across the country, but nowhere is it as cleanly drawn as in Maine, where the incumbent is so well known and the challenger is so directly challenging the idea that longevity equals results.
Both campaigns now enter the final week with the same task: turn soft supporters into actual voters. Expect a flood of advertising, a final round of debates and interviews, and a push on early and absentee voting before Election Day on Tuesday, November 3. Collins will lean on her record and her history of closing strongly; Jackson will lean on affordability and on the argument that Maine is ready for a change after three decades.
Watch three numbers in the final days. First, any new statewide poll, and whether it moves from the current tie or narrow Jackson lead. Second, the betting markets, which have already drifted from 65 percent toward Jackson down to about 59 percent, a sign that traders see the race tightening. Third, turnout among women and independents, the two groups where the Marist and University of New Hampshire surveys show Jackson ahead but not comfortably. If Collins repeats her 2020 pattern, late-deciding voters breaking her way would be visible only in the final result.
The result itself may not be known on election night. Maine's counting process, and the possibility of a close margin, mean the race could take days to call. What is certain is that the country will be watching: a state of just over a million voters, choosing between a 30-year incumbent and a challenger who says it is time, could decide who controls the United States Senate.
It is effectively tied. The Fox News poll of October 16-20 put Collins and Jackson at 49 percent each, while polling averages give Jackson a narrow lead of about 1.6 points, at 49.0 percent to 47.4 percent. Betting markets give Jackson about a 59-60 percent chance of winning.
Collins has served since 1997, nearly 30 years, and is seeking a sixth term. She is the only Republican senator seeking re-election in a state Donald Trump lost in 2024.
In 2020, polls showed Collins trailing Democrat Sara Gideon for much of the race, but she won by nearly nine points, a comeback analysts attribute to late-deciding voters and a personal brand that outperformed her party in Maine.
During an October debate, Collins touted getting Maine exempted from a road salt levy. Jackson replied, "We can't eat road salt," arguing that process wins do not address the cost of living. The line went viral and became a symbol of his affordability campaign.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Given how close the race is, the result may take days to call, and Maine's outcome could help decide control of the Senate.
Related coverage on US News Pulse: Tens of thousands of election observers to watch the polls on Nov 3, Peltola asks judge to toss DOJ certification case in Alaska, and Dark money floods the 2026 midterms.
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