Exxon and Chevron earnings headline a decisive Friday for American markets, as the two oil giants report third-quarter results before the opening bell on October 30, 2026, with crude oil above $100 a barrel and analysts forecasting profits more than double last year's levels. The Exxon Chevron earnings reports land on the same morning as the third-quarter Employment Cost Index, the Federal Reserve's favoured gauge of wage pressure, giving investors a single session that tests both corporate profits and the inflation outlook just four days before the midterm elections.
Wall Street expects a blowout. Zacks puts the consensus for ExxonMobil at $3.90 per share, up 107.5% from a year earlier, while other forecasts run as high as $4.03 to $4.10 per share on revenue of about $106 billion. Chevron's consensus is $4.78 per share, up 158.4% year over year, with some estimates reaching $4.86 on revenue of roughly $60.5 billion. Across the whole oil and energy sector, Zacks expects earnings to surge 133.9% year over year on revenues up 23.5%, to about $65.6 billion of earnings on $410.2 billion of revenue — a haul that would make energy one of the biggest contributors to overall S&P 500 profit growth this quarter.
Friday is the final big earnings session of a bruising week. ExxonMobil will release its results before the open, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Central Time, and Chevron reports before the open as well. They are joined by BP, Imperial Oil, AbbVie, General Dynamics, Regeneron, Colgate-Palmolive, Dominion Energy and Exelon, among others — but it is the two American oil majors that will set the tone, because their results translate the summer's geopolitical shock directly into dollars.
The backdrop is stark. The United States and Israel launched a war against Iran earlier in 2026, and fighting plus disruption fears in the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil moves — pushed crude sharply higher through the third quarter. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, average West Texas Intermediate prices rose from $80.46 a barrel in July to $83.90 in August and $97.31 in September, and by Wednesday, October 28, Brent had closed at $115.32 with WTI at $102.78. For producers, that price path is almost pure profit leverage: the oil they were already pumping suddenly sells for far more.
Zacks' model is unusually bullish on both names. It predicts an earnings beat for Chevron, citing a positive Earnings ESP of 3.36% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), and notes Chevron has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters by an average of 18.7%. It also predicts a beat for ExxonMobil, with an Earnings ESP of 6.03% and a Rank #1, after Exxon beat in three of its last four quarters by an average of 2.4%. BP, which also reports Friday, carries an ESP of 7.13% and a Rank #1, with a consensus of $2.66 per share on $66.2 billion of revenue.
The third quarter was, by the numbers, a producer's market. Supply concerns stemming from Middle East tensions lifted crude through September, while natural gas stayed subdued — Henry Hub spot prices averaged $2.89 per million British thermal units in July, $2.78 in August and $2.95 in September, held down by record U.S. production, ample inventories and rising renewable generation. That split matters: oil-heavy majors like Exxon and Chevron captured the crude rally, while gas-weighted earnings faced a softer market.
Refining added a second tailwind. Zacks credits improved refining margins, alongside higher commodity prices, for the sector's expected surge, and notes that of the 40% of energy companies that had already reported, total earnings jumped 202.1% while revenues rose 38.9% — with every reporting company beating earnings estimates and 80% beating revenue expectations. Energy is so strong this quarter that excluding it, projected S&P 500 earnings growth falls from 26.5% to 21.6%.
But the reports come with a warning label: expectations are already sky-high. Chevron shares reached a fresh 52-week high of $225.67 earlier in the week, and analysts caution that results may be largely priced in — a strong report may not lift the shares, while any hint of softer guidance could punish them. The same logic applies to Exxon, which lost about 10% of its upstream output to the Middle East conflict in the second quarter, according to a summary of that call, even as it generated strong free cash flow. Investors will therefore read the reports less for the headline profit — which is expected to be enormous — and more for what comes next: production guidance, capital spending plans, buybacks and dividends, and how each company is positioning for a possible easing of the Iran war.
Chevron also brings company-specific stories to the table. It is updating agreements with Venezuela that provide additional Orinoco Belt acreage and support plans to invest more than $7 billion over five years, raising production to about 600,000 barrels per day, and it is integrating Hess and expanding in Guyana — two long-cycle growth engines that matter more to the share price over years than one quarter's refining margin.
Four things will decide whether Friday is a celebration or a sell-the-news session. First, the headline numbers against consensus: Exxon around $3.90 to $4.10 per share and Chevron around $4.78 to $4.86. Second, downstream earnings — the consensus for Chevron's total downstream profit is about $5.1 billion, against $1.1 billion a year earlier, a figure that will show how much of the crude rally flowed through its refineries rather than simply its wells.
Third, guidance. With crude above $100, the question is whether management assumes those prices last. One analyst cited in market commentary warned that Chevron's valuation already assumes Brent stays elevated indefinitely — a vulnerable assumption if the Iran war de-escalates or Hormuz traffic normalises. Fourth, capital returns: how much of the windfall goes to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, and how much to new drilling, will signal whether the majors see this as a durable new price regime or a wartime spike to bank while it lasts.
Friday's economic data adds a second, equally important test. The Employment Cost Index for the third quarter lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, forecast to rise 0.8% quarter over quarter (0.7% to 0.9% across forecasters) after 0.9% in the prior quarter, with the year-over-year rate near 3.3% to 3.4%. The Fed watches this index closely because it captures wages and benefits together, and a hotter-than-expected reading would strengthen the case for the December rate rise that markets already price at roughly 80% odds — after the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28. The October Chicago PMI follows at 9:45 a.m. ET, expected around 54.8 (other forecasts near 50.0) against 58.8 in September, a still-expansionary but cooling factory reading.
Zacks' verdict on the sector is blunt: energy earnings are "expected to surge 133.9% year over year, supported by a 23.5% increase in revenues," and early reporters have already delivered, with earnings up 202.1% among those that have published. Its model "predicts an earnings beat for Chevron this time around" and likewise for ExxonMobil and BP, based on their positive Earnings ESPs and top Zacks ranks.
Market commentary strikes a more cautious note. Analysts urging restraint point out that expectations are already high and results may be largely priced in, and that Chevron's valuation, in particular, assumes elevated Brent prices persist indefinitely. That tension — record profits versus record expectations — is the classic setup for a volatile session even when the numbers look excellent.
The week that precedes Friday explains why investors are nervous. Alphabet plunged more than 12% on Thursday after missing earnings and turning free cash flow negative, wiping roughly $500 billion from its market value, while Amazon and Intel also fell after their reports. A market already questioning whether AI spending pays off will now ask the same question of oil spending — and Friday's majors are the ones with the cash to answer it.
Friday matters for three audiences at once. For investors, Exxon and Chevron are bellwethers: their profits confirm how much of the oil shock is real cash, and their guidance hints at whether $100-plus crude is a floor or a peak. For the Federal Reserve, the Employment Cost Index arriving the same morning is a direct input to the December decision — hot wage growth plus strong energy profits is a recipe for a rate rise, while a soft reading gives the Fed room to wait.
For ordinary Americans, the link is the petrol pump and the pay packet. Crude at $102 to $115 feeds into petrol prices, heating costs and the price of almost everything transported by truck, ship or plane — one reason headline inflation reached 3.6% year over year in September even as growth accelerated to 3.4% annualised in the third quarter. At the same time, the wage data will show whether workers' pay is keeping up. A morning in which oil majors report record profits while wage growth cools would sharpen, four days before the midterms, the cost-of-living argument both parties are already making.
After Friday's reports, attention turns to how the majors deploy the windfall. Exxon's and Chevron's calls will be parsed for buyback and dividend announcements, for capital spending plans in Guyana, the Permian Basin and Venezuela, and for any change in language about Hormuz, Iran and the durability of current prices. BP's and Imperial Oil's results, also due Friday, will complete the picture of how the crude rally divided between American, British and Canadian producers.
On the data front, the Employment Cost Index will feed straight into Fed expectations for December, with the next major labour reading — the October payrolls report — due the following Friday. And on the political calendar, Friday is the last full trading session before the final midterm weekend: Trump holds his last scheduled in-person rally in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday evening, before voters decide on Tuesday, November 3, whether the party in power keeps Congress. Whatever Friday's numbers say about profits and pay, they will be read through that lens.
Both report third-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Friday, October 30, 2026. ExxonMobil holds its conference call at 8:30 a.m. Central Time.
Zacks consensus is $3.90 per share for ExxonMobil (up 107.5% year over year) and $4.78 per share for Chevron (up 158.4%). Other forecasts run slightly higher: up to $4.10 for Exxon on about $106 billion of revenue, and $4.86 for Chevron on about $60.5 billion.
Crude prices rose sharply through the third quarter on Middle East tensions and Hormuz disruption fears: WTI averaged $80.46 in July, $83.90 in August and $97.31 in September, and closed at $102.78 on October 28, with Brent at $115.32. Higher prices plus improved refining margins drive the forecast 133.9% sector earnings surge.
It is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' quarterly measure of employer costs for wages, salaries and benefits, released at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 30 and forecast to rise 0.8% quarter over quarter. The Fed watches it closely as a wage-inflation gauge ahead of its December rate decision.
Yes. Analysts warn results may be largely priced in — Chevron hit a fresh 52-week high of $225.67 this week — so soft guidance, or any signal that $100-plus crude will not last, could outweigh a headline beat.
Related coverage on US News Pulse: US federal debt tops 100% of GDP for the first time since 1946, Fed rate decision October 2026: why a pause looked likely, and US-India trade deal nears finish as White House calls talks productive.
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