The United States has warned several Middle East countries and regional allies to be ready for a possible return to major military action against Iran after next week's midterm elections, and to prepare for the retaliation Tehran might launch in response, according to a new Associated Press report published on Thursday, October 29, 2026. The US Iran strikes warning, conveyed privately by American diplomats and defence officials, puts the region on alert that the eight-month-old conflict could flare again within days of Americans going to the polls on November 3, even as diplomats insist that no final decision has been taken.
Two diplomats briefed on the warnings, speaking to AP on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the sensitive exchanges publicly, said Washington had urged allies to take precautionary measures. The allies were told in particular to guard against Iranian retaliatory strikes on energy facilities and other crucial infrastructure, the kind of targets that would turn a short American campaign into a much longer and more damaging regional fight.
According to AP, the warnings were delivered by US diplomats and defence officials to several Middle East nations and regional partners. The message was twofold: be prepared for Washington to resume strikes once the critical November 3 elections are over, and be prepared for what Iran and its proxy groups might do next. Regional officials, AP reported, are bracing for a fight that could last considerably longer than the American campaign itself if Tehran answers with attacks of its own.
The diplomats emphasised that Trump has not settled the question. The president has repeatedly said he is weighing ordering new military action once the elections pass, but he has also told voters, again and again, that the end of the conflict is near. That deliberate ambiguity is now part of the strategy: allies are being told to get ready, while adversaries are left guessing about timing, scale and targets.
The White House and US officials declined to comment on the reported warnings, AP said. That silence is itself telling. In the days before previous rounds of the conflict, official denials and non-denials have often accompanied quiet military preparation, and the region's governments have learned to read the movements of ships and aircraft as closely as any statement.
The war between the United States and Iran began in late February 2026 and has now run for eight months, with a ceasefire in the spring giving way to renewed tension through the summer and autumn. The United States has not carried out a strike against Iran since early September, AP noted, but the wider conflict has not stood still. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have attacked Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and airports, and a Saudi-led coalition has answered with deadly attacks on Houthi-held territory in Yemen, spreading the instability well beyond the Gulf.
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that Gulf nations had been briefed to be prepared for a potential escalation by the United States. It remains unclear, AP added, how soon after Election Day the US military would be ready to resume strikes. The Pentagon late last month deployed the USS Theodore Roosevelt, along with a series of amphibious landing ships carrying Marines — roughly 9,000 troops in all — from San Diego to the Persian Gulf to bolster American forces in the region.
One US official said at the time that the deployment could produce an unusually large naval presence of more than 20,000 sailors and Marines, plus hundreds of aircraft, in the region — a concentration that has occurred only a handful of times in the last two decades. The Navy had three carrier strike groups in the Middle East in April for the first time since 2003, a reminder of the scale Washington can assemble when it chooses to.
What makes this warning different from earlier briefings is its explicit focus on retaliation. Allies were not simply told that American strikes might come; they were urged to harden energy facilities and critical infrastructure against an Iranian response. That advice reflects a hard lesson of the conflict so far: the opening American salvo is rarely the end of the exchange, and the countries hosting American bases, oil terminals and shipping lanes are often the first to feel the blowback.
The United Arab Emirates foreign ministry responded publicly by urging all sides to "exercise wisdom and pursue political solutions to help contain tensions" and to prevent a return to full-scale operations. Qatar, meanwhile, is leading mediation efforts, with support from regional partners, in an attempt to revive negotiations between Washington and Tehran and avert a resumption of hostilities, according to AP's reporting.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday in a post on X that Tehran "continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed" and is working with mediators to review ideas that Tehran included in a proposal floated last month — a proposal that was summarily rejected by Trump, but which the Iranians still want to see used as the basis for a return to a ceasefire.
"The United States has told regional allies that the new round of military action could last for several days, but regional officials are bracing for Iran and its proxy groups to retaliate — leading to a fight that could last even longer," AP reported, citing the two diplomats briefed on the matter.
Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, warned that the region is on edge that Tehran could act first rather than wait for an American move. "Why would they wait until after the elections here ... if they could initiate it and potentially gain the upper hand?" he said, capturing the fear that the warning itself could accelerate the very escalation it is meant to prepare for.
Trump himself, campaigning for Republicans ahead of the November 3 polls, has kept his language deliberately open-ended. During a campaign stop in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday, he said a conclusive end to the eight-month-old conflict could be coming "in a couple of weeks, if you don't mind." Asked earlier in the same address when the war in Iran would end, he replied: "Whenever I want it to end. It'll be very quick, but we have to have it end properly, with total and complete — a total statement: they will never have a nuclear weapon."
For the Gulf states, the warning is a practical problem as much as a political one. Energy facilities, desalination plants, ports and air bases cannot be hardened overnight, and the memory of Houthi strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure is fresh. A renewed American campaign that draws Iranian missiles toward allied soil would test the region's air defences, its oil markets and its willingness to keep hosting American forces.
For American voters, the timing matters just as much. The war has become a heavy weight on Republican candidates as they make their case to voters fatigued by rising gasoline prices, a byproduct of the conflict that has driven up costs across nearly every sector of the global economy. The Pentagon's latest estimate puts the cost of fighting the Iran war to American taxpayers at $47.1 billion, a figure supplied to Congress and now quoted back at the administration on the campaign trail.
For the wider world, the episode is a reminder of how closely elections and war-making are now intertwined. Trump has concentrated in recent weeks on campaign appearances for Republicans, and he has been evasive about what he plans to do next with Iran. The allies' warning suggests that whatever happens after November 3, the decision will be taken quickly — and that the region will have little time to adjust once it is made.
The immediate question is whether diplomacy can still intervene. Qatar's mediation, backed by regional partners, continues, and Araghchi's statement suggests Tehran is still looking for a negotiated route back to a ceasefire. If those talks produce movement before November 3, the post-election timetable for strikes could slip or disappear altogether.
If they do not, the days after the midterms will be watched minute by minute: for further US naval movements in the Gulf, for allied air-defence alerts, for any Iranian statement or proxy action that suggests Tehran has decided to strike first, and for a White House announcement that the decision Trump has so far withheld has finally been made. The allies have now been told to prepare. What they cannot be told is how long the next round, if it comes, will last.
According to AP, US officials told several Middle East countries and regional allies to be prepared for potential renewed military action against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, and for Iranian retaliation against energy facilities and critical infrastructure.
No. The diplomats briefed on the warnings stressed that Trump has not made a final decision, although he has repeatedly said he is weighing new military action once the elections are over.
US officials told allies a new round of military action could last several days, but regional officials fear Iranian retaliation and proxy attacks could prolong the fighting well beyond that.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that Tehran "continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed" and is working with mediators on ideas from a proposal floated last month, which Trump had rejected.
The Pentagon's latest estimate provided to Congress puts the cost at $47.1 billion, a figure now central to the midterm debate over petrol prices and the cost of living.
Related coverage on US News Pulse: Hegseth fires Pentagon top planner as Trump weighs Iran strikes, Trump says Vance letter was medical aid, not peace talks, and US Iran strike plans: forces ready within 96 hours of Trump order, reports say.
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