The American Forge Coalition mailers landing in battleground House districts have become one of the strangest fights of the final week before the November 3 midterms, after Representative Mike Lawler said the Justice Department had referred the mystery group to the FBI. Lawler, a New York Republican fighting to hold one of the country's most competitive seats, called the mailers a voter-suppression effort designed to keep his own supporters at home.
The mailers, sent under the name American Forge Coalition, accuse Lawler of backing amnesty for immigrants who entered the country illegally and of letting criminals escape justice. Lawler says that is false, and that the group behind the mailers has no Federal Election Commission filings, names no donors and has not explained who paid for the campaign. With early voting under way and the House majority at stake, the dispute has now drawn in House Speaker Mike Johnson and raised wider questions about dark money in the 2026 elections.
Lawler raised the alarm at a news conference in Rockland County on Tuesday, with Johnson standing beside him. "The Department of Justice has confirmed to my campaign that it has referred the matter to the FBI," Lawler told reporters. He described the mailers as a voter-suppression effort and added: "Somebody is spending real money in the last weeks of this election lying about my positions on criminal illegal aliens, and they won't say who they are."
The New York mailer, seen by the New York Post, carries a grim red banner reading "Mike Lawler Put Us at Risk" above a stern-looking photograph of Lawler beside shadowy figures. Its text says: "Congressman Mike Lawler supported letting criminals escape justice after illegally entering our nation." Lawler's campaign says one telephone number printed on the flyer leads straight to one of Lawler's own field offices, a detail his team presents as further evidence that the mailer was not produced by a genuine supporter operation.
Neither the US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York nor the Justice Department returned a request for comment from the Post, so the FBI referral has so far been confirmed publicly only by Lawler's campaign. That distinction matters: what is established is that Lawler says the referral happened, not that the Justice Department has itself announced an investigation. Lawler also called on his Democratic opponent, Cait Conley, to condemn the mailers. A spokesperson for Conley's campaign declined to comment.
American Forge Coalition presents itself online as an anti-globalist, pro-American movement. Its website opens with the line: "WE THE PEOPLE built this country. NOT politicians. NOT foreigners. We're hammering it back into shape — one job, one neighborhood, one law at a time." Its platform supports tariffs on cheap imports, penalties for outsourcing jobs, building a border wall, deporting criminals and stopping Washington and globalists from dictating to working families.
Records cited by Fox News Digital show the group was created in May 2026 and registered in Delaware, where incorporation rules are famously permissive and where a single Wilmington address is shared by hundreds of thousands of businesses. The group's website lists no donors and no leadership. Because it is registered as a 501(c)(4) rather than as a political action committee, it is not required to file donor information with the Federal Election Commission, although such groups are barred by law from directly campaigning for a specific candidate.
Lawler's campaign has gone further, arguing in a press release that the group's privacy policy uses almost identical language to that of Senate Majority PAC, a major Democratic super PAC, and warning that because the group names no donor, nobody can check whether any of its money came from overseas. Federal law bars foreign nationals from paying for independent expenditures in American elections. Those are allegations from the Lawler campaign, not findings by regulators, and the group has not answered them publicly.
The mailers do not all carry the same attack. In Lawler's, Kiggans' and Fitzpatrick's races, the group accused the incumbents of supporting mass amnesty and letting criminals escape justice. In Van Orden's Wisconsin race and Buckhout's North Carolina race, the mailers instead accused the Republicans of being too lenient on abortion, claiming in North Carolina that Buckhout supports abortions up until birth and in Wisconsin that Van Orden would allow what the flyer called the murder of the unborn into the second trimester.
Both attack lines take liberties with the truth, according to Fox News Digital's reporting. Lawler, Fitzpatrick and Kiggans all support the Dignity Act, which would create a pathway to temporary legal status for undocumented migrants who pay fees and pass a background check, while also increasing pay for Border Patrol agents. None of the three supports amnesty for immigrants with criminal histories. Van Orden and Buckhout, meanwhile, have both positioned themselves as pro-life and have previously been attacked by Democrats as anti-abortion, the opposite of the mailers' claim.
The pattern is what has alarmed Republican campaigns most. The mailers are not promoting a rival candidate or a third-party spoiler. They are aimed at Republican voters in Republican-leaning or toss-up districts, telling those voters their own incumbent is not conservative enough. Fitzpatrick's campaign told Fox News Digital: "They are telling Republicans that we are too independent, and then telling Democrats that we're not independent enough." Caitlin Sutherland of Americans for Public Trust argued the goal was to get Republicans to stay at home, calling that a departure from past spoiler tactics.
Johnson gave few words to the mailers themselves but used the appearance to underline Lawler's importance to the Republican majority. "He is the secret sauce in what has been one of the smallest margins in US history," Johnson said, referring to the GOP's narrow House majority. "Mike Lawler has been at the center of all of it," he added, calling Lawler a top negotiator and praising him for advocating for raising the cap on state and local tax deductions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Republicans passed last year.
Lawler's campaign manager, Ciro Riccardi, was blunter, telling Fox News Digital: "This is a shady Democrat dark money scheme using a front group that isn't even registered with the Federal Election Commission, mailing Republicans at the start of early voting to suppress them from turning out." In the campaign's press release, Riccardi added: "Make no mistake, this is a federal crime, and someone will be held accountable."
Other voices urged caution about jumping to conclusions on funding. Michael Beckel of the money-in-politics reform movement told Fox News Digital that groups on both sides have exploited the Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling to spend secret money, and that with American Forge Coalition "there is a very slim paper trail that somebody can follow." He said it was very possible the group was bankrolled by left-wing actors, but stressed the public did not yet have enough evidence to truly assess who its donors are. American Forge Coalition did not respond to a list of questions sent by Fox News Digital.
The stakes go beyond one House seat. Fox News Power Rankings project Democrats winning a House majority of 219 seats to 198 for Republicans, with 18 toss-ups remaining. Three of the races targeted by the mailers — Lawler's, Kiggans' and Miller-Meeks' — are projected as Democratic pickups, while the rest are toss-ups. If even a small share of Republican voters in those districts stay home, the mailers could help tip the majority.
The episode also fits a wider pattern in the 2026 midterms. Earlier reporting found more than $1 billion in dark-money-funded outside spending in this cycle, with much of it flowing through groups that do not disclose donors. The American Forge case is unusual because the spending appears aimed not at persuading swing voters but at demoralising a party's own base, using attack lines that contradict the targets' public records. That makes it a test of how election authorities, the press and voters handle anonymous election spending in the final days of a campaign.
For Lawler personally, the timing is brutal. He is seeking a third two-year term in New York's suburban 17th district, one of the few remaining competitive districts in the state. An Emerson College/PIX11 poll taken September 27 to 29 put Conley ahead 48 percent to 46 percent, within the poll's 4.9-point margin of error, while a McLaughlin & Associates poll released by Lawler's campaign on October 2 had him ahead 50 to 47. The Cook Political Report has rated the seat a toss-up since January.
Three things will determine where this story goes. First, whether the Justice Department or the FBI confirms any referral or investigation, and whether any enforcement action follows before Election Day on November 3. Second, whether American Forge Coalition identifies its donors, its leadership or its funding, or whether journalists and regulators can trace the money through other records. Third, whether similar mailers appear in further districts in the final days of early voting, and whether voters report receiving them.
Conley's response, or lack of one, will also be watched. Lawler has challenged her directly, noting that she once led election security work at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency in the Department of Homeland Security. Her campaign has so far declined to comment. Meanwhile, Republican campaigns in the other targeted districts are warning their supporters to treat unexpected attack mailers with scepticism and to check candidates' actual voting records before deciding whether to vote.
Readers in the targeted districts can check the facts for themselves: the mailers' central claims about amnesty for criminals and about abortion positions do not match the public records of the candidates they attack. That gap between the mailers and the record is, for now, the clearest established fact in a story where the money trail remains hidden.
What is the American Forge Coalition? A group created in May 2026 and registered in Delaware as a 501(c)(4) social welfare organisation. It presents itself as an anti-globalist, pro-American movement, lists no donors or leaders on its website, and has not answered questions from reporters.
What do the mailers claim? In several races they accuse battleground Republicans of supporting mass amnesty and letting criminals escape justice. In Wisconsin and North Carolina, they accuse Republicans of being too lenient on abortion. Reporting shows those claims contradict the targets' public positions.
Has the FBI confirmed an investigation? Not publicly. Lawler's campaign says the Justice Department told it the matter was referred to the FBI. The Justice Department and the US Attorney's Office for the Southern District did not comment to the New York Post.
Which races have been targeted? New York's 17th (Lawler), Pennsylvania's 1st (Fitzpatrick), Wisconsin's 3rd (Van Orden), Iowa's 1st (Miller-Meeks), Virginia's 2nd (Kiggans) and North Carolina's 1st, where Laurie Buckhout is challenging Democrat Don Davis.
When is Election Day? Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early voting is already under way in many states, which is why campaigns say the timing of the mailers matters.
Related coverage: Dark money midterms: $1 billion in secret cash floods US races, Midterm election observers: tens of thousands to watch polls on Nov 3 and Trump Texas rallies and the Talarico surge.
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