President Donald Trump brings his campaign roadshow back to South Carolina on Thursday, October 29, 2026, for a Trump Rock Hill rally in support of Senator Darline Graham, whose once-safe Senate seat has become one of the closest races in America with just five days to go until the November 3 midterm elections. Trump is due to speak at 12:30 p.m. at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center, with doors opening at 9 a.m., as Republicans pour money and star power into a state they normally count on winning easily.
The timing is no accident. A New York Times/Siena poll released on October 28 put Graham and her Democratic challenger, Charleston pediatrician Annie Andrews, tied at 48 percent each among likely voters. It is the first high-quality public poll of the race, and it has turned a seat held by Republicans for decades into a genuine toss-up in a state Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024.
The Republican National Committee confirmed the Rock Hill location on October 28, setting up a lunchtime rally in the fast-growing city between Charlotte and Columbia. Trump will campaign for Graham and other South Carolina Republican midterm candidates, five days before voters decide control of the Senate and the House.
Rock Hill is Trump's third South Carolina stop of this campaign. He rallied in Pendleton, in the Upstate, on October 21, where he told thousands of supporters that the race should not be close in a county he won by 47 points two years ago, joking: "Are you sure this is South Carolina?" He also campaigned in the state in late August at Myrtle Beach. Each visit has underlined how nervous Republicans have become about a seat they expected to hold without a fight.
At Pendleton, Trump dismissed the polls, telling the crowd: "I'm not a believer in the pollsters. I really am not. Nov. 3 is the only pollster that counts," before urging them to "go out and vote for Darline Graham. She's you. She's solid." He attacked Andrews as a "radical left lunatic" and pointed to her F rating from the National Rifle Association, arguing that "she wants to take your guns away." Graham, taking the stage around 6:10 p.m. that evening, called Andrews "a fraud who is prescribing bad medicine" and said her opponent was lying about her political positions.
The Rock Hill rally comes with early voting already under way in South Carolina and with both campaigns in the final sprint. Andrews has said she has visited all 46 of the state's counties, and her campaign launched a "Republicans for Annie" coalition of more than 100 South Carolina Republicans, including former state Senator Katrina Shealy of Lexington County, where Graham lives.
Darline Graham entered the Senate by appointment after her brother's sudden death in July 2026. Lindsey Graham had held the seat for almost 24 years and won his 2020 re-election bid by more than 10 points. His sister had never held elected office before her appointment. She previously led the South Carolina Commission for the Blind and worked at Clemson University and in state agencies, a background she has leaned on heavily on the trail, telling voters she wants to bring South Carolina values to Washington.
Annie Andrews is a Charleston-area pediatrician making her first run for the Senate. Her campaign has centred on lowering costs, fixing what she calls a broken health care system, ending the war with Iran, and standing up to data centers and special interests. In a statement after the Times/Siena poll, she said: "I've visited all 46 counties across South Carolina, and people are telling me loud and clear: they want a senator who will fight to lower their costs, end this war, stand up to data centers and special interests, and fix our broken healthcare system."
She added: "Darline Graham was handpicked by Washington insiders and special interests, but this seat belongs to the people of South Carolina. Whether you voted for Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, or anyone else, if you care more about your bills than the politics in Washington, this campaign is for you."
The money gap tells its own story. Federal Election Commission filings as of October 14 showed Andrews had raised $23.8 million against $1.2 million for Graham, who has struggled to raise money as an appointed incumbent. Republican groups have moved to fill the gap: according to AdImpact figures cited in reporting on the race, Republicans have increased spending to support Graham to more than $20 million in recent weeks, and total spending in the contest has passed $34 million. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican super PAC, has shifted resources into South Carolina even as it pulls back elsewhere.
South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998, and forecasters still favour Graham: Decision Desk HQ gives her a 67 percent chance of winning. But the direction of travel has been one way. The Cook Political Report shifted the race from likely Republican to lean Republican on October 20, and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia made the same move. The Times/Siena survey is not the only warning sign: a Citadel poll released October 28 gave Graham a 43-39 lead with 15 percent undecided, while a South Carolina Policy Council fall poll first reported October 26 put her ahead by just one point.
The Trump Rock Hill rally matters because it shows where the Republican campaign believes the Senate majority will be won or lost. South Carolina sits alongside Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas on the list of states Trump won where Republicans are now playing defence. If Democrats can force Republicans to spend tens of millions defending South Carolina, that is money that cannot be spent in closer battlegrounds.
The poll's internals explain why the race has tightened. Likely voters said by 13 points that Andrews, a physician, has the "right experience to be an effective senator," while they said by 7 points that Graham does not. Among independents, 59 percent said Andrews has the right experience against 31 percent for Graham. Even among Republicans, only 35 percent strongly agreed that Graham has the right experience, against 62 percent of Democrats who strongly agreed about Andrews. Overall, 51 percent of respondents, including 18 percent of Republicans, said Graham lacked the experience needed to be an effective senator, while 54 percent said Andrews had it, including 22 percent of Republicans.
Andrews also leads on the issues voters say matter most. Voters preferred her approach to the economy and gave her narrower advantages on the cost of living and on foreign wars. Republican attacks portraying Andrews as an extremist, largely built around her past comments on transgender rights, appear to have fallen flat: just 39 percent of likely voters in the conservative state said she was too far to the left. At Pendleton, Trump called Andrews a "fanatical transgender activist," a label Andrews, who is not transgender, and her supporters have rejected.
Graham's own words have fed the experience question. During an August primary debate she acknowledged: "I'm not that informed on national security." She went on to win a primary runoff against Representative Ralph Norman, but the remark has followed her, and some voters at the Pendleton rally told reporters they still knew little about her. One voter, Rachel, a 45-year-old stay-at-home mother from Walhalla, said: "I don't know anything about her, so that's a concern. I'm interested to see where she stands." Another voter summed up unease about a seat passing within a family with the words: "We're not a royalty."
Trump has made Graham's candidacy personal, saying at Pendleton that Lindsey Graham respected his sister more than anyone else, even himself, and that he encouraged her to run after her brother's death. "She's solid," he told the crowd, presenting her as a continuation of her brother's legacy rather than as a newcomer.
Andrews has framed the race as a choice about bills, not bloodlines. Her statement after the tie poll argued that "independents and Republicans are joining this campaign, and that's why we're going to win," and she has pointed to her support among independents and the 7 percent of Republican likely voters backing her as proof that the contest has moved beyond party labels.
National analysts have been struck by the shift. CNN's analysis of the new polls noted that the South Carolina tie was "astounding in a state President Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2024," and that it showed Democrats had "lots of opportunities" in states where high-quality polling had been scarce. The Times itself said South Carolina had "moved squarely to the map's center" in the fight for the Senate.
Republican strategists, meanwhile, have argued that the fundamentals still favour Graham: a Republican-leaning electorate, a presidential visit in the final week, and a flood of outside advertising. They note that Graham holds a lead of less than one point in the Times/Siena survey when unrounded figures are used, and that a quarter of respondents said they had not heard of Andrews or could not offer an opinion about her, leaving room for late attacks to land.
The South Carolina race matters far beyond one Senate seat. Democrats need only a handful of pickups to take control of the Senate, and a win in South Carolina would be the party's first there since 1998 and a signal that even the reddest states are in play when voters are angry about prices. Reuters/Ipsos polling has put Trump's approval at just 32 percent, with 73 percent of voters in one survey saying their cost of living was heading in the wrong direction, and the midterm campaign has turned heavily on affordability, gas prices, grocery bills and utility costs.
For Republicans, losing South Carolina is almost unthinkable, which is precisely why Trump is spending a third visit there. A Graham defeat would suggest that the party's problems run deeper than any single candidate, and it would embolden Democrats heading into the final days in Kansas, Maine, Alaska and other states where the map has widened. For Democrats, even a narrow loss after a $20 million-plus Republican rescue effort would show that their message on costs is cutting through in Trump country.
The race also matters for what it says about dynasties and appointments. Graham was handpicked to fill her brother's seat, and voters are being asked to give her a full six-year term on the basis of a few months in office. Andrews is asking them to judge her on a career in medicine and on policy. How South Carolinians answer that question on November 3 will shape how both parties pick candidates in future vacancies.
After Rock Hill, the final five days will be a blur of rallies, advertising and get-out-the-vote drives. Trump is expected to keep criss-crossing battleground states, while Andrews and Graham will make their closing arguments in television spots and town halls. Early voting continues through the weekend, and both campaigns will be watching turnout in the Upstate, the Lowcountry and the Midlands, where the race is likely to be decided.
Pollsters caution against over-reading any single survey. The Times/Siena poll has a margin of error that easily covers a tie, the Citadel poll still shows Graham ahead, and undecided voters, at 15 percent in the Citadel survey, could break either way. What is not in doubt is that a race nobody expected to matter now matters a great deal, and that Thursday's rally in Rock Hill is the clearest sign yet that Republicans know it.
On November 3, South Carolinians will choose between an appointed incumbent carrying a famous name and a pediatrician promising to put their bills first. As Trump told the Pendleton crowd, the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.
Trump speaks at 12:30 p.m. on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center in Rock Hill, South Carolina. Doors open at 9 a.m. and tickets are available online through the Republican National Committee.
It is his third South Carolina trip of the midterm cycle, and it comes after a New York Times/Siena poll tied Senator Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews at 48-48. Republicans are defending a seat in a state Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024.
Graham is the Republican senator appointed after her brother, longtime Senator Lindsey Graham, died in July 2026. She previously led the South Carolina Commission for the Blind. Andrews is a Charleston-area pediatrician and the Democratic nominee, campaigning on lowering costs and fixing health care.
Times/Siena (October 19-26, 707 likely voters) ties the race 48-48. A Citadel poll gives Graham a 43-39 lead with 15 percent undecided, and a South Carolina Policy Council poll puts her ahead by one point. Forecasters rate the seat lean Republican.
The midterm elections are on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. South Carolina voters will also decide House races and state contests, and early voting is already under way.
Related coverage on US News Pulse: South Carolina Senate Poll: Graham and Andrews Tied 48-48 Before Midterms, Maine Senate Race: Collins and Jackson Deadlocked One Week Before Midterms and Trump Texas Rallies: Paxton, Methane Plan and a Talarico Surge on Oct. 27.
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