The Wisconsin governor poll that campaigns have waited for all autumn is finally out, and it puts Democrat David Crowley ahead of Republican Tom Tiffany by seven points among the voters most likely to cast a ballot. The final Marquette University Law School Poll before the November 3 election, released on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, gives Crowley 51% and Tiffany 44% among likely voters, with just 4% undecided. Among all registered voters the race is closer, 47% to 44%, with 9% still undecided.
The headline lead is real, but the poll itself urges caution. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 points for likely voters, and the poll notes that the lead for either candidate is within the margin of error for the difference between the two. In other words, Crowley is ahead, the race has moved in his direction since September, and nobody can call it settled with six days to go.
Marquette University Law School released its final pre-election survey of Wisconsin voters on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The survey was conducted October 14-22, interviewing 818 Wisconsin registered voters, of whom 668 were classified as likely voters because they said they were absolutely certain to vote or had already voted. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.7 points for likely voters.
The governor's race is the headline, but the poll also tested the state legislature. Among likely voters, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic legislative candidate and 44% for the Republican, mirroring the governor's race almost exactly. Among registered voters, Democrats lead the legislative ballot 47% to 45%.
Poll director Charles Franklin summed up the movement in measured terms. "We've seen a close race for governor all along. This time, the lead has expanded just a little bit for David Crowley," Franklin said. "It's important to note that with the margin of error ... that's 4.7 on each candidate's percent."
The timing matters. The fieldwork spanned the candidates' first and only debate, held on October 21, so the survey captures only part of any post-debate movement. It is also the last Marquette survey before Election Day, which means it is the final read from Wisconsin's most closely watched pollster — a pollster whose final surveys have been largely accurate in recent statewide elections, including a 2022 gubernatorial poll that showed a tie shortly before the Democratic incumbent won by about three points.
Wisconsin is one of the closest states in American politics, and its governor's race has been tight all year. In Marquette's September survey, Crowley led Tiffany 49% to 46% among likely voters and 46% to 45% among registered voters. The October numbers show Crowley gaining two points and Tiffany losing two among likely voters, and Crowley gaining one and Tiffany losing one among registered voters.
The shift is concentrated among independent voters, the group that usually decides Wisconsin elections. Among likely voters, independent support for Crowley rose from 44% in September to 56% in October, while support for Tiffany rose from 18% to 26%. The big change is that undecided independents collapsed from 38% to 18% as voters made up their minds — and broke more heavily for Crowley. Among registered voters, independents still lean Crowley, 44% to 25%, but 32% remain undecided.
Partisans, by contrast, have barely moved. Among likely voters, Republican support for Tiffany slipped from 95% in September to 92% in October, while Democratic support for Crowley rose from 96% to 98%. There are very few undecided voters left among partisans of either party.
Turnout enthusiasm still favours the Democrats. Among registered voters, 84% of Democrats say they are certain to vote or have already done so, against 77% of Republicans, a seven-point gap that is one point narrower than in September. Sixty-four percent of independents are certain to vote, up three points. Democrats also lead on enthusiasm by eight points, the same margin as in September: 57% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about voting, against 49% of Republicans and 35% of independents.
One warning sign for Crowley sits inside the same poll. Tiffany actually leads among voters who are less certain to turn out: among those who say they are very likely but not certain to vote, Tiffany leads 42% to 30%, with 28% undecided, and among those who say they may not or will not vote, Tiffany leads 45% to 35%. If the electorate expands beyond the most certain voters, the poll says, the race tightens.
The Wisconsin governor poll also shows both candidates carrying negative favourability ratings, a familiar feature of a hard-fought race. Crowley's favourability improved from 31% in September to 37% in October, while his unfavourable rating held at 44%, for a net rating of minus seven, up from minus 13. Tiffany's favourable rating rose one point to 40%, but his unfavourable rating rose five points to 50%, for a net rating of minus 10, down from minus six. Tiffany is the better-known candidate, with 90% of voters able to rate him against 81% for Crowley.
On the issues, voters give Crowley the edge on three of four tests and Tiffany the edge on one. Crowley is seen as the candidate who would do more to make health care more affordable, 39% to 23%, to improve education, 44% to 30%, and to handle data centres better, 32% to 25%. Tiffany is seen as the candidate who would do more to reduce taxes, 42% to 17%. Large shares of voters say neither candidate would make a difference on each question.
Two specific proposals both win majority support. Crowley's proposal for a constitutional amendment guaranteeing a right to abortion in Wisconsin is favoured by 62% of registered voters, including 60% of independents and 97% of Democrats, though 69% of Republicans oppose it. Tiffany's proposal for a 10% income tax cut for couples earning $150,000 or less, plus no tax on tips or overtime, is favoured by 83% of voters, with support from 86% of Republicans, 81% of independents and 80% of Democrats.
Voters are evenly split on what to do with the state budget surplus: 50% favour returning the entire surplus directly to taxpayers and 49% favour using it for state and local services. Republicans favour returning it by 76% to 21%, Democrats favour services by 77% to 23%, and independents favour services by 58% to 42%.
The poll also finds that 60% of voters prefer a governor and legislature of the same party, while 38% prefer divided government. Republicans favour unified control 59% to 39% and Democrats 65% to 34%; independents split evenly, 49% to 49%.
On the national mood, Trump's job approval in Wisconsin has slipped to 37%, with 61% disapproving. Among Republican likely voters, 82% approve of Trump's job performance. Tiffany's closeness to Trump is not hidden from voters: 49% of registered voters say Tiffany supported Trump in Congress almost always, and 38% say most of the time. Among Republicans who approve of Trump, 99% back Tiffany; among Republicans who disapprove of Trump, Tiffany still leads 59% to 25%, but 16% are undecided.
Inflation and the cost of living remain the dominant issue, named as the top priority by 48% of voters. Immigration and border security rank second at 12%, followed by health insurance and jobs and the economy. Opinion on the economy remains sour, with voters gloomy about inflation and gas and grocery prices. In a lighter set of first-time sports questions, 54% of Wisconsinites said they were fans of the Packers and 49% of the Brewers, with more than 75% at least a casual fan of each.
Franklin's own framing was the poll's most quoted line, and it cut against any victory lap. "We've seen a close race for governor all along. This time, the lead has expanded just a little bit for David Crowley," he said, immediately adding the margin-of-error caveat that keeps the race within reach for Tiffany.
Analysts reading the poll stressed the same two facts: the direction of travel favours Crowley, but the lead is inside the margin of error for the difference between the candidates. One Wisconsin analysis noted that trailing by seven points with less than a week until Election Day is not where a candidate wants to be, while also noting that Marquette has largely cracked the code of reaching reluctant Republican respondents in recent cycles.
The campaigns now face the same closing question from opposite sides. Crowley's team must turn a polling lead among the most certain voters into actual ballots, while Tiffany's team must expand the electorate toward the less-certain voters among whom he leads, and win over the remaining undecided independents, nearly one in five of whom had still not chosen a candidate.
Wisconsin's governor controls the veto pen in a battleground state, and the winner will shape abortion access, tax policy, education funding and the state's approach to data centres. The poll's issue findings show why the race is so competitive: voters broadly like Tiffany's tax-cut proposal and broadly like Crowley's abortion-rights amendment, and they split almost evenly on the budget surplus. Neither candidate owns the electorate's agenda outright.
The poll also matters beyond Wisconsin. It is the latest in a run of final-week surveys showing Democrats with narrow leads or ties in governor and Senate races across the battleground map, and it arrives as early voting winds down and both parties make their closing arguments. A Crowley win would give Democrats a prized battleground governorship; a Tiffany comeback would show that late-deciding and lower-propensity voters can still overturn a polling lead.
The enthusiasm and turnout numbers are the subplot to watch. Democrats hold an edge in certainty to vote and in enthusiasm, but Tiffany's lead among less-certain voters means the final result will depend heavily on who actually shows up on November 3 — and on the early and absentee ballots already banked, which are counted in the poll's likely-voter group.
Early in-person voting in Wisconsin runs through Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Both campaigns are expected to spend the final days driving turnout among their bases and chasing the remaining undecided independents, with national figures campaigning in the state through the weekend.
Marquette will not publish another survey before the election, so this poll is the last independent statewide read campaigns and voters will get. The next numbers that matter will be the returns themselves, starting with early-vote totals and then Election Night results from Milwaukee, Madison, the Fox Valley and the swing suburbs around both cities.
Watch three things on election night: whether Crowley's advantage among independents holds in the actual vote, whether turnout among less-certain voters expands the electorate in Tiffany's favour, and whether the legislative ballot tracks the governor's race as closely as the poll suggests. If all three break the way the poll points, Wisconsin will have a new Democratic governor; if any one of them breaks the other way, the race could still flip.
David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany 51% to 44% among likely voters, with 4% undecided. Among all registered voters, Crowley leads 47% to 44%, with 9% undecided.
No. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 points for likely voters, and Marquette notes that the lead is within the margin of error for the difference between the two candidates, which is twice the individual margin.
The survey was conducted October 14-22, 2026, interviewing 818 Wisconsin registered voters, including 668 likely voters. It is Marquette's final survey before the November 3 election.
Inflation and the cost of living lead at 48%, followed by immigration and border security at 12%, then health insurance and jobs and the economy. Voters give Crowley the edge on health care, education and data centres, and Tiffany the edge on taxes.
Trump's job approval stands at 37% in Wisconsin, with 61% disapproving, according to the same Marquette survey.
Related coverage on US News Pulse: Maine's Senate race is deadlocked one week before the midterms, Minnesota's Senate race tightens as fraud, ICE and the Omar probe shake Democrats, and Ohio's governor race, where a newspaper broke policy to back Amy Acton.
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