Ohio governor polls published on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, tell the same story in three different ways: Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy are locked in a race too close to call, less than a week before Ohio votes on November 3. One new survey puts Ramaswamy narrowly ahead, another puts Acton narrowly ahead, and a third, conducted after Ramaswamy's controversial advertisement featuring Acton's estranged mother, puts Acton ahead by four points — all within, or close to, the margin of error.
The conflicting numbers arrive on the day President Donald Trump travels to Ohio for a rally at the Shoemaker Center on the Ohio University Chillicothe campus, his third campaign event in the state this month for Ramaswamy and Republican Senate candidate Jon Husted. Acton and Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown are holding a rally in Cincinnati at 5:30 p.m. the same day, setting up a direct closing-week contrast in a state that has become one of the most watched battlegrounds of the 2026 midterms.
The newest poll, from Suffolk University and USA TODAY and reported by The Columbus Dispatch on October 28, was conducted after Ramaswamy launched an advertisement on October 22 featuring Acton's estranged mother, Donna Arthur, accusing her daughter of lying about her past. Acton has not spoken to her mother since 1978, when her stepfather, Cledith Arthur, was charged with rape for sexually abusing a young Acton. The Arthurs left Ohio before Cledith Arthur could face trial.
Republican Governor Mike DeWine and former Governor John Kasich called on Ramaswamy to take the advertisement down, but Ramaswamy doubled down, spending more than $4 million to air it through Election Day. Trump encouraged him to keep running it. According to the Suffolk poll, nearly three-quarters of those surveyed — 72% — had seen or heard about the advertisement within days of its release, yet it changed few minds.
"You only do an ad like that if you're trailing by a large margin," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, describing the advertisement as a "Hail Mary strategy." "You have to take a gamble, and sometimes the gamble pays off, and you score, and sometimes the pass gets intercepted or blocked."
The Suffolk survey of 500 likely voters, conducted October 21-26, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. It also surveyed 300 additional likely voters in Portage County, a longtime political bellwether east of Akron that Trump won by more than 15 percentage points in 2024. There, Acton led 47.3% to 46.7%, with Kissick at 2%, within a 5.6-point margin of error.
The Ohio governor's race has been defined for weeks by the advertisement and by the extraordinary reaction to it. The Plain Dealer and cleveland.com broke a months-old policy of not endorsing in governor's races on October 25 to back Acton, saying the advertisement had "crossed a line that Ohioans should defend, whatever their party." Acton said she was honoured by the endorsement, while her brother, Philip Stearns, recorded a response video on October 20.
Earlier polling had pointed in the same direction as the new surveys, with different leads. A Marist University survey conducted October 15-18 put Acton ahead 51% to 43% among registered voters and 50% to 43% among likely voters, with Acton leading among independents 54% to 36%. Yet the same Marist survey found that 51% of respondents expected Ramaswamy to win, against 45% who expected Acton to prevail — a reminder that a polling lead is not the same as an expectation of victory.
Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur who ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 before endorsing Trump, has spent the final week crisscrossing Ohio on a bus tour, with stops in Noble, Washington, Meigs, Licking and Knox counties. He would be Ohio's first Indian American governor if elected. Acton, the state's former health director during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic, has campaigned on affordability and on what her campaign calls decency in the race's closing days.
The Echelon Insights survey, commissioned by NetChoice, a tech industry trade group, and reported by WSYX/ABC6, was conducted October 16-23 among 508 likely voters, with a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points. It put Ramaswamy at 47%, Acton at 45% and Kissick at 4% — a statistical dead heat, as the two-point gap sits inside the margin of error. WSYX noted that the survey "was commissioned by an industry trade association testing public sentiment on tech," a sponsorship detail that matters when weighing any single poll.
The RedBox Research survey, sponsored by A Fight Worth Having, a super PAC, and conducted by its polling unit, surveyed 2,998 likely voters from October 20-23, with a margin of error of 4.6 points. It put Acton ahead 48.2% to 43.8%. The same survey showed Brown leading Husted 46.9% to 44.2% in Ohio's Senate race, suggesting a Democratic-leaning sample or moment rather than a governor-only effect.
The Suffolk survey sits between the two in timing and, in effect, splits the difference in its headline while adding the most detail about the advertisement itself. Paleologos said pollsters captured Ramaswamy's support better in the October poll than in their September survey, in which Acton led 50.4% to 41.4%, because this time they conducted callback sessions with people who initially said they were undecided or refused to answer. Even so, he concluded: "Ramaswamy still isn't anywhere near where he needs to be."
Taken together, the three polls do not describe three different races. They describe one race in which Acton holds a small lead in two surveys and trails by a small margin in a third, with every lead inside or near the margin of error. That is the textbook definition of a toss-up — and it explains why both campaigns, and Trump himself, are spending the final week in Ohio rather than treating the state as settled.
The Suffolk poll indicates the advertisement likely hurt Ramaswamy's image more than Acton's. Ramaswamy's unfavourable rating rose to 54.2%, up from 52.2% in last month's poll, while Acton's unfavourable rating was unchanged at about 41%. Respondents were much more likely to say Ramaswamy was running a negative campaign — 49.8%, against 15.2% for Acton — while 11.6% said both candidates were to blame for the negativity.
Brenda Malcolm, an independent voter from Columbus's Northland neighbourhood, told The Dispatch she had not yet decided who to vote for, but the advertisement made her lean toward Acton. "It just totally ticked me off," she said. "To go contact a mother that hasn't seen her daughter in 50 years and get this statement from her. The mother doesn't know anything about Amy."
Leah Kelm, 35, from Northeast Ohio, offered the opposite reaction, saying she would choose anyone over Acton, the state's former health director during the pandemic. "I'm not 100% sure I think he's running a super effective campaign," she said of Ramaswamy. "I just remember Amy Acton doing her wine with DeWine during COVID and feeling a little lied to with the whole COVID response."
Brandon Freeman, 45, of Toledo, said he was voting for neither major-party candidate after criticising both for "throwing dirt on each other's names." He backed Kissick, saying government should be less involved in people's lives. "They pay all this money for all of this advertising going into their campaign, and it's 90% slander," Freeman said. "Just boost yourself. Tell people what you're going to do that's really going to make a change and difference and stop focusing on the other candidates."
The independent vote may decide Ohio. Among independents polled by Suffolk, Acton leads 58% to 25%, with Kissick at 7%. Paleologos warned that Kissick could be decisive precisely because he gives conservative voters who will never vote Democratic somewhere else to go. "(Kissick) is a ballot option for people who are conservatives, who will never vote Democratic but are just not excited about Ramaswamy, either because of the ad or because they just don't like him," he said.
"The 50% rule is out the window if Kissick gets 3%," Paleologos added. "Kissick could be the kiss of death for Ramaswamy." In a race where neither major-party candidate is polling above 50% in any of the three new surveys, a Libertarian pulling 3% to 4% does not need to win to change the outcome — he only needs to pull slightly more from one side than the other.
The polls also underline what Ohio voters say they care about most. In the Echelon survey, inflation and the cost of living topped voter concerns at 57%, ahead of foreign policy at 24% and healthcare costs at 21%. The same poll found 70% support for State Issue 3, a proposed constitutional amendment requiring photo identification to vote, with 28% opposed — a reminder that ballot measures, not just candidates, will shape Ohio's political landscape after November 3.
Beyond Ohio, the race is a test of Trump's closing argument. Trump has now made Ohio a repeated stop in the final weeks, and his Chillicothe rally on Wednesday is his third campaign event in the state this month. If Ramaswamy wins a race in which polls show him trailing among independents and facing an unfavourable rating above 54%, it will be read as a personal Trump victory. If Acton wins, Democrats will claim Ohio — a state Trump won comfortably in 2024 — as proof that the midterm environment has shifted.
Trump's rally at the Shoemaker Center on the Ohio University Chillicothe campus on Wednesday headlines the closing week, with Husted also on the bill. Brown and Acton answer with their Cincinnati rally at 5:30 p.m. the same day. Ramaswamy's bus tour continues through the final days, and both campaigns have focused in the closing stretch on data centres, an issue the Statehouse News Bureau reported has become a late flashpoint in Ohio.
Early voting runs through October 30, and more than 676,000 early ballots had already been cast in Ohio in reporting before this week, according to earlier coverage of the race. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, when Ohio voters will also decide the Senate race between Brown and Husted and State Issue 3. Results in the governor's race may not be known on election night if the margin is as close as the polls suggest — and if Kissick's share is large enough to keep both major candidates below 50%, the final count, including late-arriving mail ballots, will matter more than any single election-night snapshot.
It is too close to call. Suffolk puts Acton ahead 48% to 44%, RedBox puts her ahead 48.2% to 43.8%, and Echelon puts Ramaswamy ahead 47% to 45%. All three leads are within or near the margin of error.
According to the Suffolk poll, no. Seven respondents said the advertisement caused them to switch from Ramaswamy to Acton, and only one said it caused a switch the other way. Ramaswamy's unfavourable rating also rose, while Acton's was unchanged.
Possibly. Kissick polls at 3.6% to 4% overall and 7% among independents. Pollster David Paleologos says that if Kissick reaches 3%, Acton would not need a majority to win, and Kissick "could be the kiss of death for Ramaswamy."
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early voting runs through October 30, and Trump rallies in Chillicothe on Wednesday, October 28, while Acton and Brown rally in Cincinnati the same evening.
Ohio voters will also decide the Senate race between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted, and State Issue 3, a proposed constitutional amendment requiring photo identification to vote, which 70% of Echelon respondents supported.
Related coverage on US News Pulse: Ohio Governor Race: Plain Dealer Breaks Policy to Back Amy Acton for Governor; NPR-Marist Poll: Democrats Lead by 8 Points as Election Task Force Prepares; Michigan Senate Race: Vance Rallies for Rogers as El-Sayed Leads New Poll.
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