With five days left before the November 3 midterm elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved 21 House, Senate and governor's races toward the Democrats, one of the clearest late signals yet that the final week of the campaign is breaking against the party in power. The University of Virginia forecaster, led by Larry Sabato, told CNN's Erin Burnett that the shift reflects a mood that has been building for months rather than a single poll or a single day's news.
"People are unhappy, and frankly they've been unhappy for some time," Sabato said, explaining why the Crystal Ball is moving races in the Democrats' direction with less than a week before Election Day. The update covers contests across all three levels of the ballot, and it lands as both parties pour their final resources into the states and districts that will decide control of Congress.
CNN's coverage of the update, presented with chief data analyst Harry Enten, frames the 21-race move as a broad final-week shift rather than a narrow adjustment. Enten examined how accurate race ratings have been in past elections and what this year's ratings are likely to mean on Election Day, while CNN's Jake Tapper highlighted what he is watching as the campaigns sprint to the finish, including the shift in South Carolina's Senate race.
The Pennsylvania changes, reported in detail by the Crystal Ball's own analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, show how the national mood is landing in individual districts. In the 1st Congressional District, the contest between Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick and Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie is now rated a toss-up. In the 8th District, the race between Republican Representative Rob Bresnahan and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti moves from toss-up to Leans Democratic.
Polling cited by the Crystal Ball helps explain both moves. A Siena poll in Pennsylvania had Fitzpatrick down two points, a surprising finding given his reputation for electoral resilience, the analysts wrote. In the northeastern Pennsylvania race, Cognetti led Bresnahan by five points in one recent nonpartisan survey from the Philadelphia Inquirer, New York Times and Siena, and by four points in an Emerson College survey for Sean Trende's Poll Vault Substack.
The final-week shift did not come out of nowhere. On October 20, Sabato's Crystal Ball revised 28 House races toward Democrats, a move reported by The Hill and CBS News that pushed the number of seats rated as favouring Democrats above 220, past the 218 needed for a House majority. That update moved three of Iowa's four House districts to Leans Democratic, even though Republicans currently hold all four Iowa seats, and moved Arizona's 1st and 6th districts, both held by Republicans, into the Leans Democratic category.
The same October 20 revision shifted the open Texas 35th district from Leans Republican to toss-up and rated North Carolina Democrat Don Davis's re-election campaign in the 1st district as Leans Democratic. Of 15 districts whose boundaries Republicans recently redrew in their favour, only three were rated Safe Republican, according to that report, and Democratic candidates outpaced Republicans in third-quarter fundraising, weakening the Republican advantage in outside spending.
Earlier in October, the pattern was already visible. On October 8, the Crystal Ball reported 214 House seats at least Leans Democratic, 219 at least Leans Republican and two toss-ups. Its changes that day moved Florida's 25th district from toss-up to Leans Democratic, the new Florida 22nd from Leans Republican to toss-up, Nebraska's open 2nd district from Leans to Likely Democratic, and Wisconsin's 1st from Likely to Leans Republican. On September 29, it moved Pennsylvania's 7th and Virginia's 2nd from toss-up to Leans Democratic and Virginia's 1st from Leans Republican to toss-up.
The Cook Political Report's House ratings, updated October 16, told a similar story from a different angle: 214 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat categories, 200 in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican categories, and 21 toss-ups, of which 16 are held by Republicans and five by Democrats. All 435 House seats are on the ballot on November 3, along with 35 Senate seats, in an election that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's presidency.
Pennsylvania matters because it is both a battleground and a bellwether for the kind of voter Sabato says is unhappy. The 1st District, centred on Bucks County, is described by the Crystal Ball as one of the purplest districts in the country, and it has been shifting left in polling this cycle. Fitzpatrick's two-point deficit in the Siena survey is the kind of result that, in a normal year, might be dismissed as an outlier, but in the final week it was enough, combined with the broader trend, to move the race to a toss-up.
The 8th District tells a different story: a challenger building a consistent, if narrow, lead. Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton, has ridden what the Crystal Ball describes as a wave of unpopularity over President Trump's policies, and her leads of five and four points in two separate nonpartisan surveys gave the forecasters enough to move the race out of the toss-up column. The district, in northeastern Pennsylvania, has long been competitive, and a Democratic win there would fit the pattern of the wider shift.
Virginia offers an earlier example of the same dynamic. On October 4, the Crystal Ball moved the 1st District from Leaning Republican to toss-up and the 2nd from toss-up to Leaning Democratic, and moved the 5th from Likely Republican to Leaning Republican. In the 1st, Democrat Shannon Taylor was challenging Republican Rob Wittman, while in the 2nd Democrat Elaine Luria was challenging Republican Jen Kiggans. A Washington Post and Schar School poll at the time had Taylor at 50 percent and Wittman at 46 percent among likely voters, inside the margin of error.
Sabato's own explanation remains the most quoted line of the update. "People are unhappy, and frankly they've been unhappy for some time," he told Burnett, a formulation that deliberately avoids blaming any single issue or event. It echoes the broader case made by forecasters throughout October: that midterm elections, especially in a president's second term, often become a referendum on the mood of the country, and that mood has been sour for months.
The Crystal Ball's Pennsylvania authors added their own caution, and it is an important one for readers trying to turn a rating into a prediction. "To reflect the possibility of a Democratic megawave that pushes the party past 235 seats, we are moving several seats from Leans Republican to Toss-up," Kondik and Coleman wrote. "We may end up pushing many if not all of these races back to Leans Republican in our final ratings, though." In other words, the current ratings deliberately leave room for a large Democratic wave, but the forecasters are not yet committing to it.
That caution is shared, in different language, by the other major forecaster. The Cook Political Report's 21 toss-ups, most of them Republican-held, show how many seats are genuinely undecided, and the Crystal Ball's 17 toss-ups show the same. Neither forecaster awards seats. Voters do, on November 3, and the final ratings, due before Election Day, could still move in either direction.
A 21-race shift matters for three reasons. First, it changes where money and attention go in the final five days. A race moved to toss-up or to Leans Democratic becomes a magnet for late advertising, surrogate visits and get-out-the-vote effort, while a race moved away from a party can see resources quietly redirected elsewhere. Second, it shapes expectations: a forecaster moving 21 races in one direction, after moving 28 House races in the same direction two weeks earlier, creates a narrative of momentum that campaigns themselves then have to manage, whether they welcome it or try to deflate it.
Third, and most importantly, it reflects something real about the electorate that polls have been picking up state by state. In South Carolina, a New York Times/Siena poll tied appointed Republican Senator Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews at 48 percent among likely voters, in a state Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024. In Minnesota, the same polling series gave Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan a 54-40 lead over Republican Michele Tafoya. In Florida, Republican Senator Ashley Moody led Democrat Angie Nixon by six points, 50-44, a reminder that not every race is moving the same way.
For the House, the arithmetic is stark. A majority takes 218 seats. The Crystal Ball now shows Democrats with a 225-193 edge, with 17 toss-ups unassigned. If Democrats held every seat currently rated at least Leans Democratic, they would already be past the majority line, but the toss-ups, and the forecasters' own warning that some moved seats could move back, mean the majority is not yet decided. It is, however, the first time in this cycle that the Crystal Ball's headline House count has given Democrats that kind of cushion.
The next step is the Crystal Ball's final ratings, expected before Election Day, which will show whether the 21-race shift holds, grows or partially reverses. Watch Pennsylvania closely: if Fitzpatrick recovers in late polling, PA-01 could move back toward the Republicans, while a steady Cognetti lead would keep PA-08 in the Democratic column and reinforce the megawave scenario. Watch the Senate polls in South Carolina, Minnesota and Florida for the same reason: they test whether the House shift is part of a national wave or a House-specific story.
Campaigns will spend the final five days trying to turn ratings into turnout. President Trump is campaigning in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on Thursday for Graham, while Democrats are leaning on the same voter unhappiness Sabato cites to drive their own base to the polls. Early voting is already under way in many states, and the final weekend will bring the last big rallies, the last advertising blitzes and the last polls before voters, not forecasters, decide.
On November 3, the test will be simple: did the Crystal Ball's 21-race shift, and the 28-race House shift before it, describe a real movement of voters, or did it capture a moment that faded in the final days? Either way, the answer will be known within days of the vote, and in some states, where late absentee ballots are counted slowly, it may take longer. Alaska, which uses ranked-choice voting and counts late absentee ballots, could take up to two weeks to resolve, potentially leaving Senate control unresolved even after most races are called.
It is a nonpartisan political analysis and handicapping newsletter from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, led by Larry Sabato. It rates House, Senate and governor's races as Safe, Likely, Leans or Toss-up for each party.
No. A rating is a forecast based on polling, fundraising, history and the national mood. A race rated Leans Democratic is still competitive, and a toss-up is, by definition, too close to call. The Crystal Ball itself warns that some moved seats could move back in its final ratings.
PA-01 moved to toss-up after a Siena poll had Fitzpatrick down two points, and PA-08 moved to Leans Democratic after Cognetti led Bresnahan by five and four points in two recent nonpartisan surveys. Both moves fit the broader national shift toward Democrats.
218 seats. The Crystal Ball now rates 225 seats at least Leans Democratic, with 17 toss-ups unassigned, but that count is a rating, not a result, and it could change in the final ratings.
Most races will be called on election night, November 3, or in the days that follow as ballots are counted. Some states, including Alaska with its ranked-choice system and late absentee ballots, could take up to two weeks.
Related coverage on US News Pulse: Trump's Rock Hill rally for Graham in a tied South Carolina race, Trump's Texas rallies and the Talarico surge, and Trump's $5,000 dividend promise in the final week.
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