Los Angeles is staring down its first rainy Halloween in more than a decade. Forecasters say a Pacific storm arriving for the Halloween weekend could bring the city its first measurable rainfall on October 31 since 2014, turning trick-or-treating, costume parades and the famous West Hollywood Halloween Carnaval into a soggy affair and capping a week in which record king tides have already flooded parts of the Southern California coast.

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles warned on Wednesday that the odds of a wet Halloween weekend are climbing, putting the chance of rain somewhere in the region between Friday and November 2 at 90 percent. Steady to heavy downpours are possible, forecasters said, and Halloween night itself is among the periods that could be affected.

Key Points

• The National Weather Service puts the chance of rain somewhere in Southern California between Friday and November 2 at 90 percent, with Halloween night among the periods at risk.
• If rain falls on October 31, it would be Los Angeles's first rainy Halloween since 2014, when a quarter-inch fell downtown; measurable Halloween rain has occurred only about 10 to 12 times in the past 130 years.
• Los Angeles County could see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain through Sunday, with up to 2.5 inches on south-facing mountain slopes, and the heaviest rain is expected late Saturday into Sunday.
• Record king tides have already hit the coast: a San Pedro tide gauge reached 8.02 feet on Monday, beating the previous record of 7.93 feet set on January 10, 2005.
• West Hollywood says its Halloween Carnaval will go ahead rain or shine, while forecasters caution that the storm's exact timing and totals could still change.

What Happened

The warning landed on Wednesday, when the National Weather Service in Los Angeles told residents that the chances of wet Halloween activities are growing. "Sadly, chances for wet Halloween activities are growing," the weather service said, as families finalised costume plans and event organisers checked their contingency plans.

Rich Thompson, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Oxnard, told the Los Angeles Times that the weekend is shaping up wet. "It looks like it will be a wet Halloween holiday weekend," Thompson said. "It's the first [Halloween] in a while that could actually be wet." The weather service's forecast discussion put it in similar terms: "Halloween activities are likely to be impacted." Forecasters described a moderate-level storm as the most likely outcome, while adding that there is a low but present risk of a stronger storm. The exact timing and location of the rain remain uncertain, they stressed.

The weather service expects widespread rain across Southern California on Saturday, October 31, into Sunday, November 1, with around an inch possible south of Point Conception and higher totals in the foothills. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance that totals could reach double those amounts. In Los Angeles County, the forecast calls for 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain through Sunday in most areas, with local amounts up to 2.5 inches on south-facing mountain slopes. In Orange County, the chance of more than an inch of rain stands at 35 to 45 percent across much of the county.

Adam Roser, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in San Diego, said parts of Southern California could see light precipitation as early as Friday, October 30, with heavier rain expected on Saturday. Daytime highs west of the mountains will likely sit in the 60s and 70s, Roser said, while Halloween night temperatures could dip into the 50s. Rain is expected to continue into Sunday across parts of Southern California, while much of Northern California should stay dry, though the Sierra and portions of Central California are also in line for showers and cooler temperatures.

Background and Context

Rain on Halloween is a genuine rarity in Los Angeles, which is why this forecast has drawn so much attention. The city last recorded rainfall on Halloween in 2014, when a quarter-inch fell in downtown Los Angeles. Before that, the holiday stayed dry in the city until 2003, when about half an inch was recorded. The previous Halloween rainfall was in 1987, when 1.39 inches fell. The wettest Halloween on record in the Los Angeles area was in 1927, when 1.64 inches was recorded. Other wet Halloweens in the record include 1992 and 1996, and measurable rainfall on Halloween has occurred only about 10 to 12 times in the past 130 years.

The 2014 rain, notably, cleared by the time the West Hollywood Halloween Carnaval began that night; it was 2003, locals recall, when it really poured over the West Hollywood Halloween celebrations. October is typically one of Los Angeles's drier months, and the city's Mediterranean climate usually delivers mild, dry conditions for the final night of October. That is part of why Southern California's Halloween traditions grew up outdoors: neighbourhood trick-or-treating routes, front-yard haunted houses and street festivals all assume a dry evening. The North of Montana neighbourhood around 16th Street and Georgina Avenue in Santa Monica, for example, is famous for its Halloween trick-or-treating destinations.

This year's storm is being driven by a ribbon of Pacific moisture approaching California, resembling the phenomenon known as the Pineapple Express, an atmospheric river that taps tropical moisture near Hawaii and carries it thousands of miles toward the West Coast. When that moisture reaches land, it can unleash heavy rainfall. Until Friday, Southern California is expected to enjoy relatively calm weather, but residents along the coast face a different water threat this week, as exceptionally high tides raise the risk of flooding and erosion before the rain even arrives.

Los Angeles Halloween Rain: Why This Storm Is So Unusual

What makes this forecast unusual is not just the rain, but the combination of hazards arriving in the same week. The king tides came first. The National Weather Service issued a coastal flood advisory from 5 a.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Thursday for beaches in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, warning that high tides would likely reach up to eight feet each morning, 1.0 to 1.5 feet above astronomical projections.

"Minor to moderate flooding of sea water is likely over vulnerable low-lying coastal areas, especially around the time of high tide, including over beach parking lots, bike paths, and harbor walkways. Moderate to significant beach erosion is likely," the advisory read. A coastal flood warning was also issued for San Diego County and Orange County, where tides could run 1 to 1.7 feet above astronomical predictions.

The tides have already made their mark. A tide gauge in San Pedro reached 8.02 feet on Monday, topping the previous record of 7.93 feet set on January 10, 2005, according to the National Weather Service. Newport Beach declared a local emergency ahead of the exceptionally high tides. Forecasters expect minor to moderate flooding of low-lying coastal areas, moderate to significant beach erosion, and isolated damage to structures in the most vulnerable areas. Now the rain is set to arrive on top of the swollen seas, with the heaviest rain late Saturday into Sunday, easing on Sunday afternoon and evening as a ridge builds in.

Reactions and Quotes

Forecasters have been blunt about the impact on Halloween plans, while stopping short of telling anyone to cancel. "Sadly, chances for wet Halloween activities are growing," the National Weather Service in Los Angeles warned on Wednesday, and its forecast discussion added: "Halloween activities are likely to be impacted."

Thompson struck the same note in his comments to the Los Angeles Times: "It looks like it will be a wet Halloween holiday weekend." Roser, in San Diego, gave trick-or-treaters the practical picture: "We have a weather system moving into the area, and it looks like our chance of rain really starts to increase on Saturday during the day, so we're going to have some showers around (and) cooler weather as well."

Event organisers are preparing rather than postponing. West Hollywood says it is closely monitoring weather conditions but plans to hold its annual Halloween Carnaval rain or shine, encouraging attendees to dress for wet weather and to use caution when travelling to and from the festivities along Santa Monica Boulevard. If the storm arrives as predicted, this year's Carnaval could mark the first rainy Halloween night in West Hollywood in more than a decade. Coastal officials have been equally direct, urging coastal residents in the warned area to be alert for rising water and to take appropriate action to protect life and property.

Why It Matters

A rainy Halloween matters in Southern California precisely because it is so rare. Millions of people plan outdoor evenings around an assumption of dry weather: parents walking neighbourhood routes with young children, homeowners staging front-yard displays, and cities staging large street festivals. A moderate storm with steady to heavy downpours, arriving on a Saturday night, disrupts all of that at once, and it does so on a weekend when many people have no indoor backup plan.

The safety stakes are real, too. Wet roads and reduced visibility raise the risk for drivers and pedestrians on a night when children in dark costumes are crossing streets after dark. Coastal flooding, beach erosion and flooded bike paths and parking lots add a second hazard for anyone heading to the shore. And for households and businesses still dealing with the king tides, saturated ground and swollen drains mean even moderate rainfall can cause localised flooding.

What Happens Next

The next forecast updates will matter more than this week's warning. Forecasters have repeatedly cautioned that the timing, location and totals of the rain remain uncertain, and the outlook could change as the storm approaches. Families and event organisers should check the National Weather Service's Los Angeles and San Diego forecasts on Friday, when the first light precipitation may arrive and the Saturday picture should sharpen.

Through the weekend, the sequence to watch is straightforward: light rain possibly as early as Friday, heavier rain on Saturday with the highest totals late Saturday into Sunday, then easing on Sunday afternoon and evening. If the storm verifies, Los Angeles will record its first rainy Halloween since 2014. If it weakens or shifts, the twelve-year dry streak could survive one more year. Coastal residents should also keep an eye on the morning high tides through Thursday, when the coastal flood advisory expires.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will it rain in Los Angeles on Halloween 2026?

Forecasters say it is likely. The National Weather Service puts the chance of rain somewhere in Southern California between Friday and November 2 at 90 percent, with Halloween night among the periods that could see steady to heavy downpours, though the exact timing and location remain uncertain.

When was the last rainy Halloween in Los Angeles?

Los Angeles last recorded rainfall on Halloween in 2014, when a quarter-inch fell downtown. Before that, measurable Halloween rain fell in 2003 (about half an inch) and 1987 (1.39 inches). The wettest Halloween on record was in 1927, with 1.64 inches.

How much rain is expected in Southern California?

Los Angeles County could see 0.5 to 1.5 inches through Sunday, with up to 2.5 inches on south-facing mountain slopes. Around an inch is possible south of Point Conception, with higher totals in the foothills and a 20 to 30 percent chance of double those amounts.

Is the West Hollywood Halloween Carnaval cancelled?

No. West Hollywood says it plans to hold the Carnaval rain or shine, while closely monitoring conditions. Attendees are encouraged to dress for wet weather and to travel with caution.

Are the king tides dangerous?

They can be. The National Weather Service warns of minor to moderate flooding of low-lying coastal areas, beach parking lots, bike paths and harbor walkways, plus moderate to significant beach erosion. Coastal residents should watch the morning high tides and avoid flooded areas.

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