Maine heads into the final six days before the November 3 midterm elections with both of its top races effectively tied, according to a new Marist Poll released on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. The Maine Marist Poll puts Democrat Hannah Pingree and Republican Bobby Charles dead even at 44% each in the race for governor, while Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins by just two points, 49% to 47%, in the race for the United States Senate.

Both leads sit well inside the poll's margin of error for likely voters, which means neither contest has a clear front-runner on these numbers alone. Yet the survey still tells a story about a state in motion: Democrats lead on the generic congressional ballot, voters are gloomy about their own finances, and a majority of likely voters still expect the veteran incumbent senator to win even while giving her challenger a small lead. With nearly 200,000 Maine voters already having cast ballots, the final week is less about introducing the candidates than about turning out the voters who have not yet decided, or have not yet voted.

Key Points

• The Marist Poll, released October 27, 2026, ties the Maine governor race at 44% for Democrat Hannah Pingree and 44% for Republican Bobby Charles among likely voters, with independent Rick Bennett at 6% and 6% undecided.
• In the Senate race, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Susan Collins 49% to 47% among likely voters, a two-point gap inside the poll's 6.6-point margin of error for that group.
• Among registered voters, Jackson's Senate lead grows to nine points, up from four points in a Marist survey earlier in October, while Pingree leads by 11 points in the wider registered-voter pool.
• On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 47% among likely voters, widening to an 11-point edge among registered voters.
• Nearly 200,000 Maine voters had already cast ballots by mail or in early voting, which began on October 5, according to the Maine Secretary of State's office.

What Happened

Marist surveyed 1,449 registered voters in Maine from October 22 to 25, 2026, by phone, text and online. Results for likely voters carry a margin of error of plus or minus 6.6 percentage points, and results for registered voters carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 points. That wide likely-voter margin is the single most important piece of context for reading this poll: a two-point Senate lead and a tied governor race are both statistical dead heats, and small shifts in who actually turns out could move either result.

In the governor race, the tie is the headline because it is new. Reports on the poll note that Marist is the first survey to show the contest this close, after Charles had trailed by double digits in most earlier polling. Pingree's position looks different depending on which electorate is measured. Among likely voters she is level with Charles, but among independent likely voters she leads 43% to 35%, with Bennett at 12%, and among registered voters she leads by 11 points. Asked who they expect to win regardless of whom they support, 63% of likely voters named Pingree.

The Senate numbers show a similar split between the ballot and expectations. Jackson leads Collins 49% to 47% among likely voters and 50% to 41% among independent likely voters. Among registered voters his lead is nine points, up from four points earlier in October. Yet 58% of likely voters said they expect Collins to be re-elected. That expectation gap is familiar for a long-serving incumbent: voters can prefer a challenger on the ballot question while still assuming the better-known name prevails, especially in a state where Collins has won five terms.

A second survey released the same day points in the same direction for the Senate race. Echelon Insights and NetChoice sampled 413 Maine residents and found Jackson ahead 51% to 44% among people who had already returned ballots, with a margin of error of 6.3 points. In that survey, 51% of early voters said they chose Pingree for governor and 38% backed Charles. Early-voter samples need care, however: Republican voters have typically cast ballots later in recent cycles, which could narrow an early lead as Election Day voting comes in.

Background/Context

Collins is the most distinctive Republican incumbent on the 2026 Senate map. She is the only Republican senator seeking re-election this year in a state that leans Democratic, a state Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, and she has represented Maine in the Senate since 1997. If she wins a sixth term, she would become the longest-serving United States senator in Maine history. Her brand has long rested on moderation and independence from her own party on key votes, a profile that has let her survive in a blue state while many of her Republican colleagues could not.

Jackson's path to the nomination was unusual. He is a former Maine Senate president and an Allagash logger who replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee after Platner won the June 9 primary with 72.1% of the vote and then withdrew from the race in July amid allegations by former girlfriends. Maine Democrats nominated Jackson at their July 25 state convention in Bangor. That late start makes the current polling notable: Jackson has had barely three months as the nominee to introduce himself statewide, and he now leads, however narrowly, in the most recent Marist survey.

The governor race sits in the shadow of that Senate contest but matters just as much for Maine's direction. The state has been governed by Democrats in recent years, and the tied Marist result suggests Republicans see a genuine opening, even as Pingree retains a double-digit lead among the broader registered-voter pool and a clear edge in voter expectations. The difference between the likely-voter tie and the registered-voter lead is itself a turnout story: if the electorate that actually votes looks more like the registered-voter pool, Pingree's position strengthens; if it looks like the narrower likely-voter model, the race is a coin flip.

Nationally, Maine's Senate seat is rated a toss-up by both the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, and the RealClearPolitics polling average has Jackson leading Collins by 1.2 percentage points. Control of the Senate is at stake in the midterms, and Maine is one of a small number of seats that could decide it, which explains why both parties are pouring tens of millions of dollars into television and digital advertising across the state in the final week.

Maine Marist Poll: What the Numbers Really Say

The most useful way to read the Maine Marist Poll is as three polls in one: the ballot, the expectations, and the mood. On the ballot, Democrats hold small leads or ties. On expectations, the incumbents and the Democrat for governor are favoured to win, with 58% expecting Collins to survive and 63% expecting Pingree to win. On mood, the numbers favour change more than continuity: among likely voters, 42% approve of President Donald Trump's job performance and 58% disapprove, and Marist said negative views of Trump and economic worries are shaping the race.

Asked about Trump's role in their congressional vote, 42% of likely voters said he is not much of a factor, 41% said their vote is a vote against him, and 16% said it is a vote in support of him. On personal finances, 46% of likely voters said their finances have gotten worse in the past year, while 15% said they have improved and 38% said they have stayed about the same. That combination, a president with a net-negative rating in the state and a plurality of voters feeling poorer, is the classic midterm headwind for the president's party, and it helps explain why Democrats lead the generic ballot even in races where their own candidates are not pulling away.

The earlier Marist survey, conducted October 1 to 4 among 1,505 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.8 points, showed Jackson ahead 51% to 47% among registered voters, with independents breaking for Jackson 52% to 45% and 57% expecting Collins to win. The new survey's registered-voter Senate lead of nine points is therefore a widening from that earlier four-point edge, even as the likely-voter margin has narrowed to two points. The two samples measure different electorates, and the gap between them is a reminder that polls do not predict turnout; they model it, and different models give different answers.

Early voting adds another layer. Nearly 200,000 Maine voters had already cast ballots through the mail and during the state's nearly month-long early voting period, which began on October 5. That means a large share of the electorate has already locked in its choices, and the campaigns' final-week advertising and ground game are aimed at a shrinking pool of remaining voters. In a race decided by two points, the composition of that remaining pool, and of Election Day turnout itself, could be decisive.

Reactions/Quotes

The poll reports published on Tuesday carried no new statement from either the Collins or Jackson campaigns, and no fresh statement from the Pingree or Charles campaigns was included in those reports. What the reports did carry was the judgement of the race raters: both the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the Maine Senate race a toss-up, a rating that matches the Marist numbers, the RealClearPolitics average lead of 1.2 points for Jackson, and the wide margins of error that surround both.

That analyst consensus matters because it frames the final week honestly. A two-point lead inside a 6.6-point margin of error is not a lead in any predictive sense; it is a snapshot of a tied race in which either candidate could win. The expectation numbers cut the other way, suggesting that many Maine voters, including some who tell pollsters they will vote for Jackson, still believe Collins's long record and name recognition will carry her through. Which of those signals proves right will only be known on election night.

For the governor race, the reaction embedded in the numbers is similar. A tie among likely voters, an 11-point registered-voter lead for Pingree, and a 63% expectation that she wins together describe a race that is simultaneously competitive and leaning Democratic, depending on turnout. Campaigns in that position typically spend the final days on mobilisation rather than persuasion, trying to make sure their own voters, rather than undecided voters, are the ones who show up.

Why It Matters

Maine matters nationally because it is one of the few Senate seats where a Democrat can plausibly defeat a Republican incumbent, and because its governor race will shape state policy on everything from health care to energy to housing for the next four years. A Jackson win would be a significant Democratic gain in a cycle where the party needs to flip seats to retake the Senate. A Collins win would preserve the most durable example of a moderate Republican surviving in a Democratic state, and would blunt the argument that the current political environment has made such survival impossible.

The poll also matters as a test of polling itself. Maine's electorate is older, whiter and more rural than the national average, and its large independent bloc, which leans toward Jackson in this survey, has often decided statewide races late. The gap between the likely-voter and registered-voter results in the Marist poll is a live illustration of how much depends on turnout modelling, and the final result on November 3 will be read, fairly or not, as a verdict on which model was closer.

Finally, the economic numbers in the poll point to why the midterms are being fought on cost-of-living ground. When 46% of likely voters say their personal finances have worsened over the past year, pocketbook issues dominate, and both parties' closing messages, on prices, health care and jobs, are aimed squarely at that plurality. Maine's results will be one of the first indications of whether that message moved voters, or whether partisanship and candidate familiarity mattered more.

What Happens Next

Next, the campaigns enter the final six days with early voting already well under way and Election Day set for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Watch for three things: whether late polls confirm the Marist picture or show movement, how Election Day turnout compares with the early-vote pool of nearly 200,000, and whether the governor race's likely-voter tie holds or resolves toward Pingree's registered-voter lead as more ballots are cast.

Also watch the national picture around Maine. The Senate map is tight, and a Maine result that breaks late for either party could set the tone for election night coverage and for the remaining close races. If Jackson's small lead holds, Democrats will claim momentum; if Collins's expectation edge proves right, Republicans will point to Maine as proof that incumbency and moderation still count. Either way, the final Marist numbers guarantee that Maine will be watched closely on November 3.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who leads in the Maine Senate race? The Marist Poll released October 27, 2026, puts Democrat Troy Jackson ahead of Republican Senator Susan Collins 49% to 47% among likely voters, a two-point lead inside the poll's 6.6-point margin of error. Among registered voters, Jackson leads by nine points.

Who leads in the Maine governor race? Democrat Hannah Pingree and Republican Bobby Charles are tied at 44% each among likely voters, with independent Rick Bennett at 6% and 6% undecided. Pingree leads by 11 points among registered voters, and 63% of likely voters expect her to win.

How reliable is the Marist Poll? Marist surveyed 1,449 registered voters from October 22 to 25, 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.6 points for likely voters and 4.1 points for registered voters, so both top races are statistical ties among likely voters.

When is the election? Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early voting began on October 5, and nearly 200,000 Maine voters had already cast ballots by the time the Marist Poll was released.

Why is the Maine Senate race rated a toss-up? Both the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate it a toss-up. Collins is the only Republican senator seeking re-election in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024, and the polling average gives Jackson only a 1.2-point lead.

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