New CNN Senate polls released on Thursday, October 29, 2026, show Democrats leading Senate races in Michigan, Texas, Maine and Kansas, putting the party in a strong position to take control of the Senate just five days before voters head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3. The CNN Senate polls, conducted by the nonpartisan research firm SSRS, find Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead in Michigan and Democrat James Talarico ahead in Texas by margins outside the polls' margins of error, while the races in Maine and Kansas are closer and within the margin of error.

Key Points

• In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42% among likely voters, a seven-point margin outside the poll's margin of error.
• In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49% to 43%, a six-point margin that is also outside the margin of error.
• In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 49% to 45%, and in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49% to 45% — both four-point leads inside the margin of error, with no clear leader.
• President Donald Trump's job performance is underwater in all four states: 66% of likely voters disapprove in Michigan, 59% in Texas, 67% in Maine and 57% in Kansas.
• Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the chamber, where Republicans now hold a 53-47 advantage, and three of these four seats are currently held by Republicans.

What Happened

CNN published the four state polls on October 29, 2026, in the final days of the midterm campaign, and the results describe a Senate playing field that has shifted in unexpected ways. In Michigan, described by CNN as the epitome of a battleground state, El-Sayed has opened up a lead over Rogers in what was a no-clear-leader race in CNN's polling around Labor Day. The lead rests on worsening views of Rogers and on consolidated support among Democrats after the state's contentious August primary: El-Sayed now holds the support of 95% of Democratic likely voters, up slightly from 90% in the last poll. Three-quarters of El-Sayed's supporters say their vote is one of support for him, while 57% of Rogers supporters say their vote is against El-Sayed, and 50% now hold an unfavorable view of the former congressman, up from 42% in early September.

In Texas, which has not elected a Democrat in a statewide race in three decades, Talarico's narrow lead over Paxton benefits from deeply negative impressions of the Republican nominee and from sizable support among the Black, Latino and Asian voters who backed Trump in 2024. Talarico has the support of 63% of Latino likely voters and 64% among likely voters of color generally, including 22% of likely voters of color who say they backed Trump in 2024. Paxton is struggling to generate positive support even among his own partisans: 24% hold an unfavorable view of Paxton, compared with just 2% of Democrats holding a negative view of Talarico. Still, CNN cautions that nobody would confuse Texas for Democratic-friendly territory: the Republican Party remains more popular than the Democratic Party in the state, and there is no clear leader in its race for governor. Texas last elected a Democratic U.S. senator in 1988, and Trump carried the state in 2024 by nearly 14 points.

In Maine, the race has remained a tight contest even though it was widely viewed early on as one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities this cycle, with Collins the only Republican up for reelection in a state that voted Democratic in 2024. The new poll finds no clear leader between Collins, at 45%, and Jackson, at 49%, even as the race has become squarely a referendum on Collins, with about three-quarters of likely voters behind each candidate saying their choices are motivated by Collins more than Jackson. Collins' continued competitive position speaks to her ability to defray criticism that she is too close to an unpopular president: she picks up more support among Trump disapprovers, at 21%, than any of the other Republican candidates tested, and her favorability rating, while broadly net-negative at 54% unfavorable, is matched by Jackson's narrowly negative rating of 46% unfavorable to 39% favorable. Jackson's backers remain more motivated to vote, with 79% extremely motivated compared with 62% among Collins' supporters.

In deep-red Kansas, the most Republican-friendly of the four states polled, there is no clear leader between Hamilton, at 49%, and Marshall, at 45%, even as likely voters there say they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate. Only about one-third hold a positive view of the Democratic Party in Kansas, but Hamilton, like Talarico, is overperforming his party. The more relevant number may be Marshall's underperformance and unpopularity: most likely voters say they view the Republican nominee negatively, and a 59% majority of Hamilton's backers say they are motivated primarily by opposition to Marshall. Hamilton has the support of roughly 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, and voters without an opinion of Hamilton — about one-fifth of the electorate — still support him over Marshall.

The polls were conducted online and by telephone from October 20 to 27, 2026, in Michigan and Texas, and from October 20 to 26, 2026, in Kansas and Maine. Registered voters were randomly sampled from registered voter lists and a probability-based panel, and results among likely voters weight registered voters by their predicted likelihood of voting. The samples were 768 likely voters in Michigan, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points; 923 likely voters in Texas, plus or minus 4.2 points; 783 likely voters in Maine, plus or minus 4.5 points; and 838 likely voters in Kansas, plus or minus 4.5 points.

Background/Context

The stakes of the four races are set by the current balance of the Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 45, with two independents who caucus with Democrats bringing the Democratic side to 47. Democrats therefore need a net gain of four seats for an outright majority, because a 50-50 Senate would leave Republican Vice President JD Vance able to break ties. All 435 House seats are also on the ballot on November 3, along with 35 Senate seats and dozens of governors' races.

That prospect of a Democratic Senate majority largely seemed out of reach earlier this year, CNN notes, and it remains far from a done deal. But with Trump's ratings underwater even in states he won easily in 2024, territory that was once staunchly Republican now appears to be up for grabs. A Reuters/Ipsos survey published on October 26 put Trump's national approval rating at 32%, and polls have consistently found Americans concerned about the economy and inflation, placing foremost blame on the president's policies for their cost-of-living challenges. The four CNN polls sit alongside a broader polling picture that also favors Democrats: RealClearPolling averages cited by USA TODAY show Democrats widening their leads in North Carolina, by 11 points, and in Georgia, by 8 points, while in Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted by nearly three points. On the national generic congressional ballot, RealClearPolling shows Democrats ahead by about 8 points. The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate contests as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, six of them currently held by Republicans.

CNN Senate Polls: What the Numbers Mean for Control

Taken together, the four states paint a picture of a Democratic Party well-positioned to make a play for Senate control, CNN's analysis concludes, exemplifying the extraordinary range of the playing field in a political environment that borders on historic negativity toward the party in power. For Democrats to take control, they will need a net gain of four seats; three of these four seats are currently held by Republicans, so sweeping all four would still leave Democrats needing one more gain elsewhere, in states such as Ohio, North Carolina or Georgia. The polls also underline that candidate quality is cutting both ways: in Michigan and Texas, the Democratic leads are built on Republican nominees whose images have worsened, while in Kansas the lead is driven less by enthusiasm for Hamilton than by opposition to Marshall, and in Maine, Collins' personal standing has kept her competitive despite a political environment in which views of the Republican Party are more negative than in any of the other states polled.

Prediction markets are leaning the same way as the polls, though with more caution about the Senate than the House. As of Wednesday morning, October 28, Polymarket gave Democrats about a 92% chance of winning the House and a 67% chance of taking the Senate, projecting roughly 236 Democratic House seats and 52 Democratic Senate seats. Kalshi pointed in the same direction, giving Democrats about a 91% chance of winning the House and 64% for the Senate. Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 56% chance of winning the Senate, with 51 seats projected. Prediction-market odds are not polls or election forecasts: they reflect prices set by traders, and they can move quickly as new polling, early-voting data and campaign developments emerge.

Reactions/Quotes

USA TODAY, reporting the CNN findings, said the polls put Democrats "in a strong position to take control of the Senate," noting that the leads in Michigan and Texas fall outside the margins of error while Maine and Kansas are closer. CNN's own summary was more measured, finding Democrats "well-positioned in Michigan and Texas, with no clear leader in the races in Maine or Kansas," and warning that the Senate prospect "remains far from a done deal." The backdrop to the polls is Trump's final-week barnstorm of rallies, intended to fire up the Republican base. Trump rallied in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on Thursday, October 29, backing Darline Graham in that state's tied Senate race, and he is scheduled to rally in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday, October 30, for Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody. His planned second Kansas rally, at Salina airport on October 31, was cancelled and replaced with tele-town halls.

Yet the CNN polls suggest the rally tour could backfire in the very states being polled. Trump's popularity is underwater in many of the states he is visiting, USA TODAY notes, and the CNN figures put disapproval at 66% in Michigan, 59% in Texas, 67% in Maine and 57% in Kansas. Across the four states, many voters say they are keenly aware that their choice carries national implications: a 55% majority of voters supporting Jackson in Maine say party control is their top concern, while in Texas and Kansas, party control is more of a factor for those backing Republican candidates than Democrats, including being the top consideration for half of those supporting Marshall in Kansas.

Why It Matters

The Senate result will decide how easily Trump can advance his agenda in the second half of his term. If Democrats win control of either chamber, they could make it harder for Trump to pass legislation and increase congressional scrutiny of his administration, including through control of committees and the confirmation process for nominees and judges. The four polls matter beyond their own states because they test whether the national environment, with Democrats about eight points ahead on the generic ballot, is strong enough to flip seats in territory Democrats have not won in decades: a Democratic win in Texas, where the party last won a Senate race in 1988, or in Kansas, where a Democrat has not won a Senate race since 1932, would signal a shift far larger than a normal midterm swing. The polls also matter as a warning against over-reading any single survey: the Maine and Kansas leads are inside the margin of error, and in all but Maine, at least one in eight likely voters say they could still change their mind. In Texas and Kansas, at least six in ten of those uncommitted likely voters are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, suggesting there is room for political gravity to work in the Republican Party's favor.

What Happens Next

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and early voting is already under way in many states, with millions of ballots cast before the final weekend. Trump's closing schedule continues with the Daytona Beach rally on Friday, October 30, followed by events in Iowa on November 1, while Democrats are campaigning heavily in Michigan and Maine. Final polls will arrive through the weekend, and the campaigns will spend the remaining days chasing the movable voters CNN identified: at least one in eight likely voters in Michigan, Texas and Kansas who say they could still change their minds, and the roughly one-fifth of Kansas voters who have no opinion of Hamilton yet back him over Marshall. Results will be counted on election night, although close races in states with large mail-ballot counts may take days to call, and with seven races rated toss-ups by Cook, the outcome could hinge on a single state.

Frequently Asked Questions

What do the new CNN polls show?

The CNN/SSRS polls show Democrats leading in four Senate battlegrounds: Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 49% to 42% in Michigan, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in Texas, Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins 49% to 45% in Maine, and Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall 49% to 45% in Kansas.

Are the leads statistically significant?

The Michigan and Texas leads are outside the polls' margins of error, so they are statistically significant. The Maine and Kansas leads, both four points, fall inside margins of error of 4.5 points, so those races are statistical ties with no clear leader.

How many seats do Democrats need to win the Senate?

Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Republicans hold 53 seats, Democrats hold 45, and two independents caucus with Democrats for a 47-seat Democratic side. A 50-50 Senate would leave Republican Vice President JD Vance breaking ties, so Democrats need 51 seats for outright control.

When is Election Day 2026?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Voters will decide all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and dozens of governors' races and other state and local offices.

Why is Trump's approval rating important in these polls?

Trump's job performance is underwater in all four states polled, with disapproval at 66% in Michigan, 59% in Texas, 67% in Maine and 57% in Kansas. Midterm elections often turn into referendums on the sitting president, and the CNN analysis says the negative environment is putting territory once seen as safely Republican up for grabs.

Read more on US News Pulse: Trump's Daytona Beach rally: 9,000 expected at the Ocean Center before the midterms; Trump's Rock Hill rally backs Graham in tied South Carolina Senate race; Trump cancels second Kansas rally, shifts to tele-town halls.