A Typhoon In-Fa warning is now in effect for three far northern islands in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, after forecasters on Thursday, October 29, 2026, upgraded a typhoon watch to a warning for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan as the Category 4 storm bears down on the island chain. The National Weather Service office in Guam said In-Fa was carrying maximum sustained winds of 130 mph at 1 p.m. local time, down from 150 mph on Wednesday evening, and was moving west at 18 mph about 540 miles east of Saipan and 630 miles from Guam, with its centre expected to pass near Agrihan on Friday night.

Key Points

• Typhoon In-Fa warning upgraded on Thursday, October 29, 2026, for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands, replacing the earlier typhoon watch.
• In-Fa was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph sustained winds at 1 p.m. Thursday, down from 150 mph on Wednesday evening; typhoon-force winds extend up to 50 miles from the centre.
• The 7 a.m. Thursday forecast put the eye about 8 miles from Agrihan around 8 p.m. Friday; tropical storm-force conditions are expected from around midday Friday, easing early Saturday.
• On Agrihan, forecasters warned of destructive winds of 110 to 130 mph with gusts up to 180 mph, 8 to 12 inches of rain, surf of 13 to 19 feet on east-facing reefs and coastal inundation of 3 to 6 feet.
• Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan are expected to see generally fair weather, but hazardous surf of 9 to 15 feet or more is forecast across the Marianas into the weekend.

What Happened

The upgrade from watch to warning is the key change on Thursday, and it changes what residents of the three northern islands should expect. A typhoon watch means typhoon conditions are possible within 48 hours. A typhoon warning means sustained winds of 74 mph or more are expected. Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Guam made that call on Thursday morning, after In-Fa weakened below super typhoon strength but remained a powerful Category 4 storm on its westward track.

The Guam Daily Post reported that the National Weather Service said In-Fa had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph at 1 p.m. on Thursday, down from 150 mph on Wednesday evening. The storm was moving west at 18 mph, about 540 miles east of Saipan and 630 miles from Guam. Typhoon-force winds extended up to 50 miles from the centre, and tropical storm-force winds up to 125 miles. Because the storm is compact, forecasters stressed that small shifts in track will matter a great deal: a direct hit would bring the full force of the Category 4 storm, while an eye passage even 15 miles away would bring much less wind and damage, according to warning coordination meteorologist Landon Aydlett in an alert distributed early Thursday afternoon.

The most recent track available on Thursday morning put the danger squarely on Agrihan. Ken Kleeschulte, lead meteorologist at the Weather Service in Guam, told The Guam Daily Post on Thursday morning that the 7 a.m. forecast showed the eye passing about 8 miles from Agrihan around 8 p.m. Friday. Earlier forecasts had placed the centre slightly closer to Pagan. Kleeschulte said the compact storm will be, in his words, going through some pretty high winds in a small spot.

A local statement issued at 8:44 a.m. on Thursday, when In-Fa still had winds of 140 mph, set out what each island could face. On Agrihan, destructive winds of 110 to 130 mph could occur near the centre, with gusts up to 180 mph, along with 8 to 12 inches of rain, surf of 13 to 19 feet on east-facing reefs and coastal inundation of 3 to 6 feet. Pagan and Alamagan could see winds of 80 to 100 mph, with gusts up to 150 mph. Tropical storm-force conditions are expected to begin around midday Friday, with those winds expected to subside early Saturday.

Background/Context

In-Fa is the seventh super typhoon in the western North Pacific this year, according to the National Weather Service, and the seventh tropical cyclone to pass through the Marianas in 2026. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Warning 24, issued at 09:00 UTC on October 29, put the storm at 138 mph (120 knots) with gusts to 167 mph and a central pressure of 945 millibars, about 415 nautical miles east of Saipan, heading west-northwest at 20 mph. That advisory forecast In-Fa near 18.5 degrees north, 146.3 degrees east by 06:00 UTC on October 30, still a major typhoon, north of Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Guam, with seas up to 55 feet near the centre.

The storm's history this week explains why Thursday's warning matters even though the headline wind speed has come down. In-Fa strengthened to 140 mph on Wednesday and was still strengthening, with the Weather Service saying it could become a super typhoon on Wednesday night as it headed for a Friday evening pass near or over Pagan or Agrihan. The watch issued on Wednesday put Pagan, Alamagan and Agrihan under a typhoon watch, meaning winds of 74 mph or more were possible within 48 hours. The 1 p.m. Wednesday forecast brought the centre within about 55 miles of Alamagan, 25 miles of Pagan and 14 miles of Agrihan between roughly 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. Friday. Forecasters said the expected track had barely changed in 24 hours, nudging a couple of miles north with each update, and that model members were hugging close to the passage region near Pagan Island.

The Northern Mariana Islands are a United States commonwealth in the western Pacific, and the far northern islands are sparsely populated compared with Saipan and Guam. That is why the official advice is so specific: the Weather Service statement advises residents to bring loose objects indoors, identify shelter and stock a few days' worth of food, water and medications. Without concrete shelter, it advises residents to look for a cave or something similar. Prepositioning supplies and checking communications matter now, emergency managers said, because northern-island logistics are the constraint once the storm arrives.

The wider Pacific picture on Thursday was busy but distinct from In-Fa. Tropical Storm Vance, in the eastern Pacific, was weakening off western Mexico with 40 mph winds and no coastal watches or warnings, though it still threatened flooding rain in Sinaloa. The Atlantic and Central Pacific had no active tropical cyclones. In the Marianas themselves, the National Weather Service discussion issued on Thursday at 6:03 p.m. Chamorro Standard Time described mostly dry conditions with only spotty light showers, while warning that large northeast swell could still carry wave energy outward into waters far from In-Fa's core, with seas increasing quickly after midnight Thursday night and peaking Friday evening.

Typhoon In-Fa Warning: What It Means for Guam and Saipan

For the larger, more populated islands, Thursday's message was reassuring but not a reason to ignore the sea. Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan should see generally fair weather, Kleeschulte said. The storm's closest approach to Guam, about 341 miles to the northeast, would come Friday afternoon, and, in his words, we're not going to see anything out of it. He forecast isolated light showers for Guam on Thursday night, followed by no showers through Saturday. Saipan could be breezy at times Friday through Saturday, the Weather Service alert said.

The main hazard for those islands is the water. The alert warns of hazardous sea and surf conditions across the Marianas into the weekend, with especially large swells in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Kleeschulte estimated swells of 9 to 12 feet for Guam and Rota and possibly 15 feet or higher for Tinian and Saipan. There's going to be some pretty hefty waves, strong rip currents, high surf, he said. Emergency managers echoed the point: high surf of 12 to 18 feet on Tinian and Saipan and 10 to 14 feet on Guam and Rota will close beaches, erode shoreline and threaten waterside infrastructure through Saturday, with north- and east-facing reefs particularly exposed.

Travel should not be badly disrupted, forecasters said. Travellers should not encounter problems flying in and out of Guam over the next few days, Kleeschulte said, because aircraft will be routed north or south around the relatively compact storm. Even so, Aydlett advised on Wednesday that travellers should check with their airlines about flights on Friday and Saturday, the days when the storm passes closest to the chain.

Looking further ahead, In-Fa is forecast to weaken slowly as it continues moving west, and Kleeschulte said it still appears likely to be a Category 3 storm on Tuesday, when the current forecast ends. Asked whether it could move farther south, he said it was always possible, but not likely. After the forecast passage, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center outlook calls for a slow turn southeast of Iwo To, then a track back west, still at sea.

Reactions/Quotes

Aydlett's warning about the difference a few miles can make was the sharpest message of the day: A direct hit would bring the full force of this Category-4 typhoon. However, an eye passage even 15 miles away would result in much less wind and damage overall. That single sentence captures why forecasters keep urging residents of Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan to prepare for the worst case even while the track remains uncertain by a few miles.

Kleeschulte's Thursday morning update gave the track its most precise form yet: the 7 a.m. forecast showed the eye passing about 8 miles from Agrihan around 8 p.m. Friday. His description of the storm as compact, going through some pretty high winds in a small spot, underlines the same point — the worst winds will be concentrated, not spread across the whole island chain.

On the populated islands, Kleeschulte's reassurance was equally direct. On Guam's closest approach, about 341 miles to the northeast on Friday afternoon, he said: we're not going to see anything out of it. On the surf, his warning was the opposite of reassuring: There's going to be some pretty hefty waves, strong rip currents, high surf. The contrast between fair weather on land and dangerous water is the message emergency officials want residents and visitors to hold together.

No casualties, damage reports or evacuation orders for the northern islands had been reported in the coverage reviewed for this article, because the storm had not yet arrived. The warning is a forecast product, not a damage report, and officials stressed that residents should follow the National Weather Service in Guam and local emergency officials for updates as each new advisory replaces the last.

Why It Matters

This warning matters for three reasons. First, it is a genuine escalation: a watch became a warning, which means forecasters now expect typhoon conditions, not merely that they are possible, on three islands. For communities with limited shelter and long supply lines, that change in wording is the trigger to finish preparations, not to start them.

Second, the storm is a test of the season's pattern. In-Fa is the seventh super typhoon in the western North Pacific this year and the seventh tropical cyclone to pass through the Marianas in 2026, in a season in which the combined Eastern and Central Pacific has already set a record for accumulated cyclone energy. A Category 4 storm threading the far northern Marianas, even if it spares Guam and Saipan, is a reminder that the most dangerous track is often the narrow one.

Third, the surf hazard reaches far beyond the warning area. Even islands that will see fair weather face 9- to 15-foot swells, strong rip currents and beach closures into the weekend. In a region where the sea is a workplace, a road and a playground at once, a storm 341 miles away can still hurt people who never see its winds.

What Happens Next

The timeline from here is short. Tropical storm-force conditions are expected to begin around midday Friday on the northern islands, with the centre passing near Agrihan on Friday night, around 8 p.m. local time on the current forecast, and winds subsiding early Saturday. The National Weather Service and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center will issue fresh advisories through Friday, and each one will refine the track by a few miles — enough, in this compact storm, to change the outcome for a single island.

After Friday night, forecasters expect In-Fa to weaken slowly while continuing west, remaining a Category 3 storm into Tuesday on the current outlook, then turning slowly southeast of Iwo To and back west, still at sea. The next question for the Marianas will be the damage assessment on Agrihan, Pagan and Alamagan once winds ease and communications checks resume, and whether the surf hazard on Saipan, Tinian, Guam and Rota eases as forecast through Saturday.

Residents and travellers should check the National Weather Service Guam office's local statements and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's advisories for updates, and should not use a local rain lull or light wind as a reason to approach hazardous surf. The official advice remains: prepare shelter, food, water and medications now, stay out of the water, and check with airlines about Friday and Saturday flights.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a typhoon warning?

A typhoon warning means typhoon conditions, with sustained winds of 74 mph or more, are expected in the warned area. It is a step up from a typhoon watch, which means such conditions are possible within 48 hours.

Which islands are under the Typhoon In-Fa warning?

Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The warning was upgraded from a watch on Thursday, October 29, 2026.

When will Typhoon In-Fa pass closest?

Tropical storm-force conditions are expected from around midday Friday, October 30, 2026, with the centre forecast to pass about 8 miles from Agrihan around 8 p.m. Friday. Winds are expected to subside early Saturday.

How strong is Typhoon In-Fa?

In-Fa was a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph at 1 p.m. on Thursday, October 29, down from 150 mph on Wednesday evening. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center put it at 138 mph with gusts to 167 mph at 09:00 UTC on October 29.

Will Guam or Saipan be hit?

Forecasters expect generally fair weather on Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, with the storm's closest approach to Guam about 341 miles to the northeast on Friday afternoon. The main hazard for those islands is hazardous surf of 9 to 15 feet or more into the weekend.

Related coverage on US News Pulse: the storm's earlier approach is covered in Typhoon In-Fa Nears Northern Mariana Islands as Category 3 Storm, the wider Pacific storm picture is in Typhoon In-Fa Nears Northern Mariana Islands as Category 3 Storm, and the season's record Pacific cyclone energy is covered in our earlier weather reporting on the 2026 hurricane season.