President Donald Trump returns to South Carolina on Thursday, October 29, 2026, for a rally in Rock Hill, and the very fact that he is coming back says as much about this election as anything he will say on stage. The South Carolina Senate race between Republican Senator Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews is tied, and a state that Republicans have long treated as safe ground has become one of the most closely watched battlegrounds of the 2026 midterms.

Trump is scheduled to speak at 12:30 p.m. ET at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center, with doors opening at 9 a.m., campaigning for Graham and other South Carolina Republican candidates. It is his second visit to the state in two weeks and his third South Carolina trip of the cycle. In a normal year, a Republican president would not need to spend the final days before a midterm election defending South Carolina. This is not a normal year, and Republicans know it.

Key Points

• Trump rallies in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 12:30 p.m. ET for Senator Darline Graham.
• A New York Times/Siena poll released October 28 ties Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews at 48 percent each among 707 voters.
• Reuters reports that Republicans are newly on the defensive in once-safe territory, with Democrats leading in polls in several Republican-held Senate states.
• South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998, yet the Cook Political Report has moved the race from likely Republican to lean Republican.
• Early voting in South Carolina, which opened October 19 and ends October 31, is already running at record-setting levels.

What Happened

Reuters reported from Washington on Thursday, October 29, that Trump will stage a campaign rally in South Carolina for the second time in two weeks as new polls show the Senate race is a toss-up. The report, by Jacob Bogage, said some Republicans are beginning to fret that their traditional stronghold of South Carolina has become a battleground state, with control of Congress at stake in Tuesday's midterm elections.

The timing is deliberate. Election Day is November 3, just five days after the Rock Hill rally. Rock Hill sits in an area represented by U.S. Representative Ralph Norman, who won the August Republican primary runoff there, and it is the kind of place where a divided Republican vote could matter. Graham defeated Norman in the Republican primary by about five percentage points, and analysts have warned that even a small number of write-in votes for Norman could prove decisive in a race this close.

On Wednesday, October 28, both candidates were in Greenville, working the same city a day before Trump's arrival. Andrews sat for an interview with the Greenville News, covering affordability, the wars in Iran and Ukraine, and data centers. Graham spoke to the Fourth District Republican Club, telling supporters that she intends to stay connected with constituents if elected to a full term. "I'm not going to go up there and forget South Carolina," she said. "I want to come back to South Carolina on a regular basis."

Background

The seat at the centre of this race once belonged to Graham's brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Trump's foremost Republican allies, who died suddenly in July 2026. Darline Graham was appointed to fill his seat, and her path to the ballot has been anything but traditional. She earned Trump's endorsement before formally announcing a campaign for a full six-year term, despite having no prior political career of her own.

Speaking in Greenville, she addressed that history directly. "This was never in my plans. I never wanted to be a politician. I'm here because of what happened on July 11 when I lost my precious brother unexpectedly," she said. During her time in the Senate, she has championed a bill named for her late brother that imposes sanctions on Iran and Russia amid ongoing wars.

Andrews, by contrast, has been campaigning for 18 months. She announced her candidacy in May 2025 and has since made stops in all 46 South Carolina counties. "We've spent a lot of time in rural South Carolina because we're not taking anybody's vote for granted," she said. "Everyone belongs in this campaign."

The polling picture explains why both campaigns are treating the final days as a sprint. The New York Times/Siena poll released October 28, surveying 707 voters from October 19 to 26, put Graham and Andrews at 48 percent each, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. A Citadel poll released October 27 suggested Trump's recent rally in Pendleton, another area where voters chose Norman over Graham in the primary, may have helped Graham in the Upstate: her lead among registered Upstate voters grew from six points before the rally to 17 points afterward.

South Carolina Senate Race: Why a Republican Stronghold Is Now a Toss-Up

The South Carolina Senate race matters far beyond South Carolina because it is part of a wider pattern. Reuters reported that the race is one of several contests in Republican-leaning states tilting toward Democrats in the campaign's final days, in part because of Trump's low ratings in opinion polls. Republicans are fighting to retain Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina and Maine to maintain their six-seat Senate majority, and polls show Democrats leading in each of those states, according to the Reuters report.

Polls and independent analysts favour the Democrats to retake control of the House, while Senate control is considered too close to call. A Democratic victory in either chamber could place limits on Trump and usher in congressional investigations of his administration over its final two years. That is why a seat in South Carolina, a state Trump won with nearly 60 percent of the vote, has become a national story.

South Carolina has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since Fritz Hollings, who was first elected in 1966 and served until 2005; the Greenville News notes the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998, the year Hollings was last re-elected. The Cook Political Report shifted the race from likely Republican to lean Republican in an October 20 update, a move that captured how far the contest has travelled from its starting point.

The defensive posture has a cost. Reuters reported that Republicans had opportunities to challenge Democrats in Michigan and Georgia in the midterms, and had hopes of picking off another seat in Minnesota. But defending turf in the South has forced Republicans to divert vital resources away from those races, and sent Trump on a frenetic nationwide campaign tour through 19 states since the start of October. He has rallies planned in Florida, Kansas and Iowa in the final days before the Tuesday vote.

The same defensive pattern is visible elsewhere. Trump has also rallied in recent days in Mississippi, where the campaign between Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Scott Colom has tightened. Colom would be the first Black senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction. Republican operatives have also grown concerned over the Nebraska Senate race between Republican Senator Pete Ricketts and independent candidate Dan Osborn.

Reactions and Quotes

Graham has pushed back against criticism of her campaign as unpolished, saying she was not a career politician and does not "speak politician." Her campaign has said endorsements from political figures mattered less than support from voters and from Trump. That line is aimed at one of the more striking developments of the week: two former South Carolina governors, Republican David Beasley and Democrat Jim Hodges, endorsed Andrews in a television advertisement that began airing October 26. Hodges, a Democrat, defeated Beasley, the Republican incumbent, in 1998.

Former Republican Governor Nikki Haley, a Trump appointee during the president's first term who challenged him for the White House in 2024, has not endorsed either candidate. Her silence has been noted by both campaigns, and it underlines how unusual this race has become: a Republican incumbent in South Carolina cannot count on the unified backing of her party's state establishment.

Andrews, for her part, has gone on the attack over Graham's connection to Washington. "I think she thinks the job is to be a Washington ambassador to South Carolina, to come down here and tell us what Washington insiders and party bosses say," Andrews said in her Greenville News interview. She also criticised Graham for believing the senator will "disappear into the Washington swamp" if she is elected.

One Republican attendee at a recent South Carolina event captured the anxiety inside the party. Tim Phillips, a VIP attending a rally, told Gray DC that the president's return was welcome but also sobering. "Candidly, it's also sobering. This is the second trip the president will make to South Carolina for this Senate race, this Graham Senate race here. You would like to see South Carolina kind of put to bed," Phillips said, meaning the polls showing a Republican candidate with a solid lead that has not materialised.

Why It Matters

The South Carolina race is a test of two competing theories about the 2026 midterms. The first is that a tied poll in a deep-red state is a blip, driven by an unusual candidate, an unusual succession, and a divided primary, and that Republican voters will come home on Election Day. The second is that the tie is a symptom of something larger: a midterm electorate frustrated by affordability, tired of wars abroad, and willing to punish the party in power even in places where it has dominated for a generation.

The early-vote numbers give the second theory some weight. South Carolina has reported record-setting early voting since opening on October 19, and early voting ends on October 31. Nationally, more than 40 million ballots have already been cast. Analysts quoted in South Carolina coverage caution that strong early voting has traditionally benefited Democrats, but that Republicans have often made up ground on Election Day itself through strong turnout from MAGA voters. As one analyst put it, a big question for the entire race is whether the MAGA base will come out when Trump is not on the ballot.

There is also a practical consequence for the rest of the map. Every dollar, every rally, and every day Trump spends defending South Carolina is a dollar, a rally, and a day he is not spending in a state Republicans hoped to flip. If South Carolina is genuinely in play, the Republican Senate map shrinks, and the Democratic path to the majority widens without Democrats having to win a single new state.

What Happens Next

Trump speaks in Rock Hill at 12:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 29, and the rally will be watched for two things: whether he can unify the Republican vote behind Graham, including Norman's supporters, and whether he offers anything beyond the endorsement itself. A Citadel poll suggested his Pendleton rally moved Upstate voters toward Graham; his campaign will hope Rock Hill does the same in the Charlotte suburbs and the surrounding counties.

After Rock Hill, Trump heads to Florida, Kansas and Iowa in the final days before the vote. Early voting in South Carolina ends Saturday, October 31. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. If the polls are right, the South Carolina result may not be known on election night, and a race that began as a formality could end as one of the closest Senate contests in the country.

For Andrews, the final days are about holding the coalition she has built over 18 months: rural voters she has courted county by county, independents, and the small but potentially decisive share of Republicans willing to cross party lines. For Graham, they are about proving that an appointed senator, a first-time candidate, and a Trump endorsement are enough to hold a seat her brother held for decades.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is running in the South Carolina Senate race? Republican Senator Darline Graham, appointed after her brother Lindsey Graham died in July 2026, faces Democrat Annie Andrews, a Charleston Democrat who announced her candidacy in May 2025.

What do the latest polls show? A New York Times/Siena poll released October 28 ties Graham and Andrews at 48 percent each among 707 voters, with a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. The Cook Political Report rates the race lean Republican.

When is the Rock Hill rally? President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at 12:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center, with doors opening at 9 a.m.

When is Election Day? The midterm elections are Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early voting in South Carolina opened October 19 and ends October 31.

Why is South Carolina considered a battleground now? Because a tied poll, a divided Republican primary, record early voting, and a national trend of Republican-held Senate seats tilting toward Democrats have combined to put a seat Republicans long held safely into genuine contention.

Related coverage on US News Pulse: South Carolina Senate poll: Graham and Andrews tied 48-48 before midterms; Trump Rock Hill rally: president backs Graham in tied South Carolina race; Early voting passes 40 million as midterm ballots surge before Nov. 3.

Featured image: an illustration of a large outdoor campaign rally crowd in a southern U.S. town. It is not a photograph of the Rock Hill rally.