President Donald Trump's public approval rating has edged up to 32% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, one week before the 3 November midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress.

President Donald Trump's public approval rating inched higher to 32%, up a percentage point from his record low a week earlier, ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday.

The Headline Numbers

Trump's fellow Republicans are fighting to retain the party's majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate.

The five-day poll, which was conducted nationwide, also showed that registered voters broadly favored Democrats over Republicans by 47% to 36% when asked which party they would vote for in what is known as a "generic ballot" question. Some 11% said they did not know who they would vote for if the election were held today.

That gap of 11 percentage points between Democrats and Republicans was 1 percentage point tighter than in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on October 19. The poll that closed on Monday additionally asked undecided voters which party they were leaning toward. Factoring in their responses, the national race appeared somewhat tighter, with Democrats leading by 9 percentage points, 50% to 41%.

What the Generic Ballot Does — and Does Not — Tell Us

For Republicans, losing control of either chamber could complicate Trump's agenda in the last two years of his second term as president.

Generic ballot polls are national polls that provide an overall view of which party poll respondents would like to see in charge in Congress. While these polls provide a view of national public sentiment, they do not capture the nuances of the state-by-state and district-by-district contests that determine control of the Senate and House, contests in which Republicans hold some structural advantages.

In other words: a national lead does not automatically mean control of either chamber. Individual Senate races in states like South Carolina, Mississippi and Texas, and House races in competitive districts, will decide the outcome.

How the Poll Was Done

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was conducted online, gathered responses from 1,679 US adults, including 1,280 registered voters, and had a margin of error of 2 percentage points for all adults and 3 points for registered voters.

That margin matters: a 32% approval rating is a snapshot, not a forecast, and a one-point rise from a record low is within the margin of error for all adults.

Why It Matters / What Happens Next

With one week to go, both parties will use this poll in opposite ways. Democrats will argue that voters are ready for a change in Congress. Republicans will argue that national polls miss the district-level map, and that turnout in the final week can still change the result.

Watch for: the final Reuters/Ipsos poll before 3 November, state-level polls in the closest Senate races, and early-voting turnout figures.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Trump's approval rating in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll? 32%, up one percentage point from his record low a week earlier.

Who leads the generic ballot? Democrats lead Republicans by 47% to 36% among registered voters, or by 50% to 41% when undecided voters' leanings are included.

Does a generic ballot lead guarantee control of Congress? No — generic ballot polls show national sentiment, but control of the Senate and House is decided by state-by-state and district-by-district contests.