President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a new low in Emerson College Polling's final national survey before the 2026 midterm elections, with just 37% of likely voters approving of his job performance and 57% disapproving, four days before Americans vote on Tuesday, November 3. The Trump approval rating result, released on Friday, October 30, 2026, lands as Democrats hold a 10-point lead on the generic congressional ballot and as several Senate races in states Trump won comfortably in 2024 have tightened into genuine contests.

Emerson's survey, conducted October 24-26 among 1,000 likely voters with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, is the pollster's last national snapshot of a midterm campaign in which the president has made himself the central figure. Trump has campaigned across the country throughout October, yet the new numbers suggest that, nationally at least, voters are heading into the final weekend more sceptical of his leadership than at any previous point in Emerson's tracking.

Key Points

• Trump's approval rating is 37% in Emerson College Polling's October 30 national survey, with 57% disapproving — a net rating of minus 20 points.
• That 37% is a new low in Emerson polling, two points below the previous low of 39% recorded in September, July, June and May 2026.
• Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 42% on the generic congressional ballot, with about 5% undecided, most of them independents.
• Cost of living (34%) and fighting corruption in government (28%) are the issues voters say most affect their vote this November.
• Separate state polls show Democrat Adam Hamilton leading in Kansas by up to nine points and Democrat James Talarico ahead in Texas by six points.

What Happened

Emerson College Polling published its October 2026 national poll on Friday, October 30, describing it as the final national survey before the midterm elections. The headline findings were stark: the generic Democratic candidate leads the generic Republican 52% to 42%, and the president's approval rating has dropped to 37%, against 57% disapproval.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, put the shift in a 15-month context. When tracking began, he said, Republicans stood at 42% on the generic ballot — exactly where they stand now — while Trump was roughly split, at 46% approval to 47% disapproval. Democratic support, by contrast, has climbed eight points over the same period, from 44% to 52%.

"The 2026 Midterm season wraps with the Republicans at 42%, exactly where they started when tracking began 15 months ago," Kimball said. "At the time, President Trump's approval was split, 46% to 47%. Now, the president has a net 20-point disapproval, 37% to 57%. Democratic support climbed eight points over the past fifteen months from 44% to 52%, with undecided and swing voters clearly shifting in the Democrats' favor."

Kimball also warned that the reported Democratic lead might understate the party's ceiling. "With about 5% still undecided, most of whom are independent and half disapprove of Trump, Democrats' congressional ceiling could be higher than the poll reports," he said.

The survey also measured enthusiasm, and here too Democrats hold an edge. Some 76% of Democrats said they were "very excited" to vote in the midterms, compared with 64% of Republicans and 62% of independents — a gap that matters in a midterm election, where turnout, not just preference, decides seats.

Background: How Trump Got to 37%

Emerson's previous low for Trump was 39%, a figure he recorded in four separate surveys — September, July, June and May 2026. The drop to 37% is therefore not a sudden collapse from a position of strength, but the latest step in a slow slide from the near-even split recorded when tracking began.

The disapproval figure tells the same story from the other side. In January, according to reporting on the poll, 51% of respondents disapproved of Trump's performance; that figure is now 57%, six points higher. The president's net rating has moved by roughly 20 points against him over the course of the tracking period.

What voters say is driving their choice helps explain the mood. Asked which candidate position most affects their vote this November, 34% named the cost of living and 28% named fighting corruption in government. Lowering taxes followed at 10%, then fixing immigration laws at 8%, ending the Iran war at 6%, reforming healthcare at 6% and creating jobs that pay well at 4%.

None of this, on its own, decides an election. Emerson's sample is 1,000 likely voters, weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region based on Census parameters and voter-file data, and collected through a probability-based panel using text-to-web contact, with additional panel interviews. A three-point credibility interval means the true national figures could be a few points either way — but the direction of travel across Emerson's own series is consistent.

Trump Approval Rating: What the Averages Say

Emerson is not an outlier in finding Trump underwater. As of Friday, October 30, the RealClearPolitics average put Trump's approval at 38.4% and his disapproval at 59.7%. The New York Times polling average had him at 37% approval and 60% disapproval, while Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin average showed 37.3% approval and 59.9% disapproval. Three different aggregators, using different methods and poll selections, converge on essentially the same picture: roughly three in five Americans disapprove of the president's performance.

The generic-ballot averages point the same way. RealClearPolling's average gave Democrats an 8.2-point lead, 51.4% to 43.2%. The most recent polls in that average included Harvard-Harris (Democrats 52%, Republicans 48%), Economist/YouGov (50% to 41%), Reuters/Ipsos (53% to 44%), NPR/PBS/Marist (52% to 44%) and CBS News (53% to 45%). Emerson's 10-point margin sits at the wider end of that range, but not outside it.

Prediction markets, which are not polls but reflect what traders are willing to pay for contracts tied to outcomes, moved even further toward Democrats on Friday morning. Polymarket gave Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and a 69% chance of taking the Senate. Kalshi showed similar odds: 92.1% for a Democratic House, 68.5% for a Democratic Senate, 67.5% for a Democratic sweep of both chambers, 26.5% for a Democratic House with a Republican Senate, and just 7.3% for a Republican sweep.

Forecasters were more cautious than the markets. A Decision Desk HQ forecast released on Thursday put Democrats' chances at 80% for the House and 60% for the Senate — strong favourites in the House, but a genuine contest for the Senate.

Reactions and Quotes

Trump himself has projected confidence throughout the final week, even as his schedule has shifted. "We're going to have a strong Tuesday night," he told reporters on Thursday as he returned to the White House, after a week in which his campaign first cancelled and then restored in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa.

Asked why he had cancelled the Kansas rally, Trump said: "I don't feel like I have to go to Kansas," adding that Republican Senator Roger Marshall was "doing well." The Republican National Committee said the switch to tele-rallies would let Trump reach more voters in a final "72-hour sprint," with RNC chairman Joe Gruters calling the tele-rallies "a huge boost in the closing days."

The state polls published on Friday suggest why Kansas, in particular, has become a focus. A Washington Post-Schar School poll found Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Marshall 52% to 43% — a nine-point margin in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932 and that Trump carried by more than 16 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. The poll surveyed 801 likely Kansas voters from October 22-26, with a margin of error of 3.9 points, though the pollsters acknowledged the results could have overstated Democratic support because Democrats were far more enthusiastic than Republicans about responding.

Emerson's own final Kansas survey was closer but pointed the same way: Hamilton 49%, Marshall 45%, with 3% for Libertarian candidate David Graham and 3% undecided, among 800 likely voters surveyed October 26-28 with a margin of error of 3.5 points. In the same survey, Republican Ty Masterson led Democrat Cindy Holscher 50% to 46% in the race for governor, and Trump held a 45% approval rating in Kansas against 51% disapproval. The economy was the top issue for Kansas voters at 44%, followed by healthcare at 15% and threats to democracy at 13%.

In Texas, a CNN/SSRS poll found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by six percentage points. A Talarico victory would be the first statewide win by a Texas Democrat this century, and the first since 1994 — a measure of how unusual the current map has become.

Elsewhere, a Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin, released October 28, found just 37% of registered voters approving of Trump's job performance, with 61% disapproving — matching Emerson's national approval figure exactly.

Why It Matters

Midterm elections are, in large part, referendums on the president, and a president at 37% approval is a drag on every candidate sharing his party label — especially in the states where his standing is weakest. The new polls show that drag operating not only in swing states but in states Republicans have long taken for granted: Kansas, where the Senate seat is now rated a toss-up, and Texas, where a Democrat leads a statewide race for the first time in a generation.

The generic-ballot lead matters for the House, where Democrats need only a net gain to take control, and where even a modest national swing can flip dozens of marginal seats. The Senate is harder, because only a third of seats are contested and the map still favours Republicans in several states — which is why forecasters give Democrats a lower chance there than in the House, despite the national polling lead.

Enthusiasm may be the most consequential number in Emerson's release. In midterms, the party whose voters are most motivated usually overperforms its polling, because turnout falls sharply from presidential-election levels. A 12-point enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, if it holds through Tuesday, could turn close races in Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Texas — the six closest Senate contests in current polling averages — in Democrats' favour.

There is a caution for Democrats too. Polls are snapshots, not results, and Emerson's own Kansas write-up shows how response enthusiasm can skew a sample. Prediction markets can move fast, and late-deciding independents — about 5% nationally, half of whom disapprove of Trump — could still break either way. The president's closing argument, delivered through nearly 20 tele-rallies plus restored in-person stops in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday, is aimed squarely at those voters.

What Happens Next

The final weekend of campaigning runs through Sunday, November 1, with Trump holding back-to-back rallies in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday alongside tele-rallies in nearly 20 states. Early voting continues through Monday, November 2, in most states, and Election Day itself is Tuesday, November 3.

Some House and Senate races could be called on Tuesday night, but control of Congress may take longer to determine. Close races can remain uncalled while mail, provisional and other eligible ballots are counted, meaning the balance of power may not be known on election night itself — a familiar pattern in recent midterms, and one both parties are already preparing their supporters for.

For Trump, the stakes go beyond Tuesday's results. A Democratic House would bring subpoena power and investigations; a Democratic Senate would block confirmations and legislation. A Republican hold, against the polling, would instead be read as a vindication of his closing strategy — and of his argument, repeated all week, that the polls are wrong and that Tuesday night will be "strong" for his party. Either way, the Emerson numbers released on Friday will be the last national benchmark against which the result is judged.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Trump's approval rating in the latest Emerson poll?

Trump's approval rating is 37%, with 57% disapproving, in Emerson College Polling's national survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted October 24-26, 2026 and released October 30. It is the lowest approval figure for Trump in Emerson's polling.

Who leads on the generic congressional ballot?

Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 42% in the Emerson poll, a 10-point margin, with about 5% undecided. The RealClearPolling average gives Democrats a smaller, 8.2-point lead, 51.4% to 43.2%.

Which Senate races are closest?

Current polling averages show Democrats narrowly ahead in Iowa (Josh Turek +0.2), Kansas (Adam Hamilton +1.1), Alaska (Mary Peltola +1.8), Maine (Troy Jackson +2.6), Ohio (Sherrod Brown +3) and Texas (James Talarico +2.9) — though prediction markets still narrowly favour Republicans in Kansas and Iowa.

When is the 2026 midterm election?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Voters will decide control of the House and Senate, along with gubernatorial, state and local races across the country.

When will we know who won?

Some races may be called on Tuesday night, but control of Congress could take days to determine while mail, provisional and other eligible ballots are counted in close races.

Related coverage: Trump's Kansas and Iowa rallies are back on after cancellation; Early voting surge: 43 million ballots cast before the midterms; Trump ties federal help to midterm wins in the final days.